Institute for Economic Advancement

Arkansas Employment and Unemployment – March 2014

By , April 21, 2015 10:43 AM

The latest employment report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Arkansas Department of Workforce services shows a slight weakening of labor market conditions during March.  Nevertheless, the trends remain positive and March appears to be a weather-related anomaly.

The unemployment rate in Arkansas remained at 5.6% after being revised upward from 5.5% to 5.6% for February.  Nationwide, the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.5%.   The number of unemployed Arkansans increased by 777, the first monthly increase since February 2011.  On the other hand, the number of employed was up by 3,890 and the labor force increased 4,667.  This was the 17th consecutive monthly increase in household employment, and the 11th consecutive month of labor force expansion.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Payroll Survey
Data from the Nonfarm payroll survey showed a contraction of jobs in March, with employment down 6,700 after a downward revision of 1,400 to the February total.  As shown in the table below, the bulk of the job losses were in construction.  According to the news release from the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services, the decline in construction took place “as many projects were temporarily shut down due to weather conditions.”  Indeed the National Weather service reported that “It was a near record wet March, with a snowstorm to start the month and severe weather picking up toward the end.

In addition to construction, employment in Retail Trade was also down on a seasonally adjusted basis, reflecting a slower-than-usual start to the spring shopping season.  Notable monthly declines also appeared in the employment data for Professional & Business Services and Leisure & Hospitality Services.  Compared to a year ago, however, employment is up in every major sector except mining and logging, with a total employment increase of 22,200 (1.9%).

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

With the March decline, Arkansas payroll employment dropped back below it’s pre-recession level, after having slightly exceeded that level in February.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

# # #

*Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format compatible with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services, can be found hereTable-Seasonally Adjusted NFPE.

Metro Area Unemployment and Employment – February 2015

By , April 8, 2015 3:38 PM

New data on metro area employment and unemployment came out this morning.  As we reported last month, the metro area data are being revised significantly, taking into account new methodology and source information, as well as new definitions for many of the metro areas themselves.  Final revisions will not come out until April 21, so the current data remain “provisional.”

The news release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that “unemployment rates were lower in February than a year earlier in 366 of the 387 metropolitan areas.”  All eight of the metro areas that include parts of Arkansas were included in that total.  As shown in the table below, the unemployment rate has fallen by over a full percentage point in every metro area except Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers.  The largest decline has taken place in Pine Bluff — down from 9.6 a year ago to 7.9 in February 2015.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

The calculation of smoothed seasonally-adjusted metro area unemployment rates has been discontinued until after the final data revisions are complete, so we have no official information on seasonally-adjusted rates.  Lacking that information, it is not possible to make meaningful month-to-month comparisons.

Payroll Data
Nonfarm payroll employment was up by 0.4% in Arkansas for the month of February, but the gains were not evenly dispersed across the state.  Four metro areas saw increases, while four saw decreases.  Compared to the previous February, however, seven of the state’s eight metro areas have seen increases in payroll employment, with only Pine Bluff continuing to see a downward drift.  Compared to the national employment trough of February 2010, only Pine Bluff and Texarkana have experienced net decreases.  Three metro areas now have higher levels of employment than before the 2008-09 recession, Fayetteville, Jonesboro, and Little Rock.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

(Note:  With the redefinition of the Texarkana MSA, seasonal adjustment factors have been deemed unreliable for now and no seasonally-adjusted data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  The data for Texarkana in the table above have been seasonally adjusted by the Institute for Economic Advancement.)

Arkansas Taxable Sales – 2014:Q4

By , March 30, 2015 2:07 PM

With consumer purchasing power boosted by low gasoline prices, Arkansas Taxable Sales (ATS) surged in the fourth quarter of 2014, increasing by 2.7% from the previous quarter and up 4.5% from a year earlier.  With gasoline prices falling by nearly 18% from the third quarter to the fourth quarter, Arkansans were paying quite a bit less to fill their tanks.  The dollar-value of gasoline sales fell by 9.1 (seasonally adjusted).  Consequently, Arkansas Taxable Sales Including Gasoline (ATSIG) increased more slowly than the ATS, increasing by 1.8% for the quarter and 3.4% from a year earlier.

Sources: Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

Sources: Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

Sources: Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

Sources: Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

Since the official end of the recession (2009:Q2), ATS has increased by 19.4% (a 3.3% annual rate) and ATSIG has increased by 20.4% (3.4% annual rate).  However, inflation–as measured by the price index for Personal Consumption Expenditures–has been associated with an increase in prices of about 9.4% over the same period.  Consequently, real taxable sales  have only been increasing at an annual rate of 1.6% (not including gasoline) and by 1.8% (including gasoline).  After this adjustment for the effects of inflation, real taxable sales are only now recovering to levels comparable to the pre-recession cyclical peak of 2008:Q2.

Sources: Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Sources: Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

 # # #

Arkansas Taxable Sales (ATS) is calculated by the Institute for Economic Advancement to serve as a timely proxy for Arkansas retail sales. The series is derived from sales and use tax data, adjusting for the relative timing of tax collections and underlying sales, changes in tax laws, and seasonal patterns in the data.  Arkansas Taxable Sales Including Gasoline (ATSIG) incorporates data on the state motor fuel tax and gasoline prices from the Oil Price Information Service. A spreadsheet of the monthly and quarterly data is available here: Arkansas Taxable Sales 2014:Q4 (Excel file). Note:  With this release, seasonal factors for the monthly data have been revised.

Arkansas Employment and Unemployment – February 2015

By , March 27, 2015 10:24 AM

Today’s report on state level employment and unemployment was another in a recent series of upbeat reports.  The headline was another downtick in the unemployment rate, from 5.6% to 5.5%.  Over the past 12 months, the unemployment rate in Arkansas has fallen by one full percentage point.  The national unemployment rate in February was also 5.5%.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

The underlying components of the unemployment rate–derived from the household survey–continue to trend in positive directions.  The number of unemployed Arkansans was estimated to have declined by 858 from January to February, and has fallen by more than 10,000 over the past 12 months.  Meanwhile, the number of employed increased by 5,750 for the month and is up by nearly 43,000 since February of 2014.  The strong gains in employment have also driven labor force participation higher.  The labor force was up by 4,900 for the month.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Payroll Employment:
Total nonfarm payroll employment was up by 5,200 for the month (seasonally adjusted).  The gains were largely attributable to increases in two service sector categories:  Professional & Business Services (+2,100) and Leisure & Hospitality Services (+3,100).  Changes in other sectors were mixed.  Manufacturing employment showed a disappointing loss of jobs (-1,800), but construction employment was up for the fourth consecutive month.   From February 2014 to February 2015, total payroll employment has increased by 29,400 — a growth rate of 2.5%.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Since the employment trough of February 2010, total payroll employment has increased by 61,100 and is now above the pre-recession employment level by 3,700 jobs (0.3%).  By comparison, total employment for the U.S. in February was 2.0% above pre-recession levels.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

 # # #

*Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format compatible with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services, can be found hereTable-Seasonally Adjusted NFPE.

Arkansas Personal Income – 2014:Q4

By , March 25, 2015 2:44 PM

This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics issued its report on State Personal Income for the fourth quarter of 2014 and for calendar-year 2014.  The headline statistic was an national average growth rate of 3.9% from 2013 to 2014.  In Arkansas, the annual growth rate was 3.1%.  Per capita income in Arkansas rose by 2.9% to $37,751, while national per capita income rose 3.0% to $46,129.  Accordingly, Arkansas per capita income remained at 82% of the national average, with a ranking of 44th among the 50 states plus D.C.

Source:  Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Total earnings — which includes wages and salaries, employer supplements to wages and salaries, and proprietors income — rose by 1.9% in 2014, compared to a 4.1% increase nationally.  The table below shows the growth rates of total earnings broken down by industry.  Growth rates in Arkansas were below the national average in most sectors.

Source:  Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Quarterly Data
For the fourth quarter of 2014, Arkansas personal income increased 1.2% from the previous quarter, and was up 4.5% from the fourth quarter of 2013.  For the U.S., the comparable growth rates were 1.0% quarterly and 4.5% year-over-year. Since the recession of 2008-09, Personal income in Arkansas has been tracking fairly close to the national average.  Compared to the previous cyclical peak (2008:Q2), total income in Arkansas is up 20.6% (an average annual rate of 2.9%).  Since the trough of the recession (2010:Q1), Arkansas income has increased by 24.7% (a 3.5% annual rate).

Source:   Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

The table below shows some of the key components of personal income growth in the fourth quarter.  Two components are notable.  First, growth of Proprietors’ incomes in Arkansas significantly exceeded the national average in both the quarterly and year-over-year data.  Second, another area of strong income growth in Arkansas — particularly in the year-over-year figures — was personal current transfer receipts.  This component was boosted by payments associated with Medicaid expansion (a.k.a. the “Private Option”).  Today’s report from the BEA noted that “Medicaid transfer receipts increased 13.6 percent in the states where coverage expanded in 2014 under the Affordable Care Act and 7.3 percent in the states where coverage did not expand.”   In Arkansas Medicaid transfers increased by 29.2% from 2013:Q4 to 2014:Q4.  That was ore than twice the national average rate of 13.3%.

Source:  Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

 

 

Metro Area Unemployment and Employment – January 2015

By , March 20, 2015 4:41 PM

New data on metro area employment and unemployment came out today.  The metro data were subject to the same data revisions that we’ve seen for the state-level data already.   The household employment and unemployment data were estimated using the “new generation of time-series models,”  and updated to incorporate updated estimation inputs and population controls, and the payroll data were revised to reflect the annual benchmarking process.  Just to make it more complicated, today’s report incorporated new geographic delineations for metropolitan statistical areas.   Three metro areas in Arkansas were affected by the new definitions:  Fort Smith, Memphis, and Texarkana  (see endnote*).  Moreover, the revision process is not over:  The not seasonally adjusted data from 2010 forward will be comprehensively revised again on April 21, and smoothed seasonally-adjusted metropolitan area estimates will not be available until after that revision.

Today’s report began with the summary statement that unemployment rates in January were lower than a year earlier in 339 of the nation’s 387 metro areas.  All eight of the metro areas that cover parts of Arkansas were included in this total.  As shown in the table below, unemployment rates in Arkansas have fallen by varying magnitudes, ranging from -0.2 percentage points in Memphis to 1.4 percentage points in Pine Bluff.  As of January 2015. five metro areas had unemployment rates lower than the statewide average of 6.5% (not seasonally adjusted).

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

The revisions to metro area unemployment rates were generally not substantial.  As shown in the next table, revisions to the most recent month previously reported (December 2014) were quite minor, even for the metro areas with new geographic delineations.  The revisions had somewhat larger impacts on previous months’ observations, affecting the December 2013-December 2014 year-over-year changes.  Generally speaking, unemployment rates at the end of 2013 were revised downward, reducing the magnitude of unemployment declines measured over the course of 2014.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

 

Payroll Employment
The data for nonfarm payroll employment incorporate new metro area delineations, as well as the annual comprehensive benchmark revisions.  The latest data and growth rates are summarized in the following table:

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES).   Note:  Data for Texarkana are not presently available on a seasonally adjusted basis and have been seasonally adjusted by the Institute for Economic Advancement.

From December 2014 to January 2015, employment dropped by 1.5% in Pine Bluff, and by 0.1% in Fayetteville and Fort Smith.  Other metro areas around the state saw month-over-month gains.  Compared to the previous January, employment in all metro areas except Pine Bluff have seen increases, with the largest gains in Jonesboro and Fayetteville.  Three metro areas are now showing higher levels of payroll employment than before the recession.

To get a sense of how the payroll data revisions affected recent employment growth, the following set of figures compares the revised data to previously published statistics.  In several metro areas, we see the same pattern as in the statewide data revisions; namely, a downward revision to employment growth in late 2013 and a stronger pick-up of growth in 2014.  The data for Northwest Arkansas show a substantial upward revision over the course of 2014 with the cumulative impact measuring nearly 8,000 additional jobs (+3.6%) counted by December 2014.  At the other extreme, the data for Pine Bluff were revised downward, with the cumulative impact amounting to nearly 1,000 fewer jobs (-2.6%) than previously estimated at the end of last year.  Data for Fort Smith, Memphis and Pine Bluff show level shifts associated with the revised metro area delineations.*

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

*Note:  Fort Smith, Memphis, and Texarkana were subject to revised geographic boundaries (OMB Bulletin No. 13-01).  Fort Smith was redefined to exclude Franklin County, AR;  Memphis was revised to include Benton County, MS; and Texarkana’s delineation was expanded to include Little River County, AR.

Arkansas Employment and Unemployment – January 2015

By , March 17, 2015 1:28 PM

With the data revisions for 2014 complete, the Bureau of Labor Statistics published the first state-level employment data for 2015.  From the household survey, the unemployment rate ticked down one-tenth of a percent to 5.6%.  As described in a previous post, some of the recent sharp swings in the household employment data were recently muted by data revisions.  But the January data showed an uncharacteristically large surge in employment, similar to those that were showing up in the recent data before revision:  From December to January, the number of employed was up by more than 9,000.   The number of unemployed was essentially unchanged, so the labor force figures also showed a sharp increase.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

At 5.6%, January’s unemployment rate in Arkansas was one-tenth of a percent lower than the national average for January, and one-tenth higher than the national average for February.  Arkansas’ unemployment rate continues to closely track that of the U.S. as a whole.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Payroll Survey
The payroll data are similarly showing generally positive trends.  The not-seasonally adjusted data reported by the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services showed a sharp decline for the month, but that is typical of the change from December to January as the demand for holiday-related workers wanes.  After taking account of typical seasonal fluctuations, the seasonally-adjusted data showed an increase in Arkansas Nonfarm Payroll Employment of 2,000 jobs.  In the goods producing sectors, Manufacturing employment was down 1,800 but Construction employment was up 2,300.  Changes were mixed across service sectors:  Employment in Professional and business services was up for the month; Leisure and Hospitality employment was down slightly.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Today’s release of Nonfarm Payroll Employment Data incorporated the annual benchmark revisions (more on that below).  In the context of the revised data, the year-over-year growth of Arkansas employment amounts to 26,800.  Gains were widespread, with only slight declines in Mining, Information Services and Government employment.  Since the employment trough of February 2010, the Arkansas economy has recovered 56,400 of the jobs that were lost during the recession.  The composition of employment in Arkansas has changed considerably over the past seven years:  Manufacturing employment has contracted by over 32,000 jobs, while job growth has been concentrated in service sectors.

As of January, total nonfarm payroll employment was 1,000 jobs (0.1%) lower than the pre-recession levels (December 2007).  For the U.S. as a whole, employment surpassed its pre-recession level in April 2014.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Benchmark Revisions
The revisions to payroll employment data were about as expected:  The job growth in the latter part of 2013 that had been previously reported was largely revised away.  However, the new data show stronger growth in the first part of 2014 than the previously-published data.  As a result, revisions to recent statistics were relatively minor.  As of December, the revised data show only 3,100 fewer jobs than the pre-revision statistics.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

The table below summarizes the impact of the revision on various sectors.  Because the data for late 2013 were revised downward far more than the data for end of 2014, year-over-year growth in total employment is considerably stronger in the revised data.  This basically reflects the re-estimation of the timing of job growth:  More of the recent growth is now estimated to have taken place in 2014 instead of earlier.  The revisions to various sectors are mixed.  Levels of employment were revised downward for Construction, Wholesale Trade, Education and Health Services, Leisure and Hospitality Services and Government.  But again, the change in the estimated timing of job growth matters for the growth rates of the sectors.  The revised data generally show slower growth over the past year for goods-producing sectors, as well as for Education and Health Services.  The higher growth rate in total job growth is reflected in most of the other service sectors.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

 # # #

*Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format compatible with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services, can be found hereTable-Seasonally Adjusted NFPE.

Revised Unemployment Data for Arkansas

By , March 11, 2015 1:20 PM

Next week we will see revised data for Arkansas payroll employment.  Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has already released new, revised data for household employment and unemployment–including the unemployment rate.  This revision is more substantial than the routine annual re-estimation process, representing the implementation of a “new generation of time-series models.”  For Arkansas, the data revisions smooth out some of the puzzling fluctuations in employment and labor force over the past couple of years, while maintaining some of the overall trends that were apparent in the previously published data.

The chart below shows the effect of the revisions on the Arkansas unemployment rate.  As previously estimated and published, the unemployment rate reached 7.9% during the 2008-09 recession, peaking at 8.1% in 2011.  The revised data show higher rates of unemployment during the recession and its aftermath, with a peak rate of 8.4% in early 2011.  The revised data show a somewhat smoother path of recovery from 2011 through 2014, but both series show and end-of-year unemployment rate of 5.7%.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

The revisions to the unemployment rate are based on revised estimates of employment, unemployment, and labor force.  Over the past few months, the employment and labor force statistics have shown unusually large and somewhat inexplicable fluctuations.  As shown in the next set of charts, much of that volatility was revised away.  What remains is a gradual decline in employment running from the end of 2011 through late 2013, followed by a period of recovery during 2014.  The nearly two-year decline in employment totaled nearly 50,000 workers, with the subsequent recovery adding back about 30,000 by the end of 2014.  A similar pattern of revisions affect the labor force estimates.  On the number of unemployed, the revised data show more unemployed workers than previously estimated in 2010 and 2011, but with a larger and more persistent decline in 2013 and 2014.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS).

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS).

Before the revision, the data were showing that Arkansas’ unemployment rate moved above the U.S. average during 2013 and remained persistently higher throughout 2014 (see here, for example).  With the more monotonic downward path for unemployment in the revised statistics, Arkansas’ rate has more closely tracked the national average.  As of December 2014, the unemployment rate for Arkansas was 5.7% — one tenth of a percentage higher than the national rate.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Arkansas Home Sales – January 2015

By , March 10, 2015 3:54 PM

New data from the Arkansas Realtors® Association (ARA) show that home sales in January 2015 were up 5.1% from the previous year.  As shown in the figure below, January is typically the slowest sales month of the year, so it is not possible to conclude too much from the one month’s sales figures.   Nevertheless, the sales total of 1,678 homes reported is the highest sales total for the month of January since 2007.

Source:  Arkansas Realtors® Association

Source: Arkansas Realtors® Association

Weather is often a factor for home sales during the winter months.  A year ago, January was a particularly wintery month, whereas weather conditions have been more harsh this year in February.  Hence, the year-over-year comparison for January might be more favorable than the figures will be for February.

Setting aside seasonal fluctuations, it is clear that Arkansas home sales have been on an increasing trend for the past two years.  Using the statistical technique of seasonal adjustment, the chart below eliminates the predictable seasonal swings, leaving only the trend and monthly variability.  From this perspective, the January sales total is right in line with recent sales trend.

Source:  Arkansas Realtors® Association; Seasonally adjusted by the Institute for Economic Advancement

Source: Arkansas Realtors® Association; Seasonally adjusted by the Institute for Economic Advancement

 

Arkansas House Prices – 2014:Q4

By , March 9, 2015 4:53 PM

The latest house price data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) showed continuing appreciation at the end of 2014.  According to the FHFA Expanded-Data Indexes, Arkansas house prices rose 0.6% in the fourth quarter (seasonally adjusted), and were up 3.0% for the year.  This compares to a quarterly increase of 1.3% nationwide, and a 6.0% annually.  As shown in the accompanying chart, the slower pace of house price appreciation in Arkansas is largely attributable to the fact that the drop in house prices from 2007-2011 was not as pronounced in Arkansas as in many parts of the country, so the rebound is not as rapid.  The fourth quarter figure for Arkansas shows house prices approximately 3.3% below their levels in the second quarter of 2007.  This is roughly consistent with the latest data from an alternative source of home-price data, CoreLogic®, which shows house prices being 3.8% below their previous cyclical peak in mid 2007.

Source:  Federal Housing Finance Agency

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency

Patterns of house price changes differ dramatically around the state.  The chart below shows house price indexes for Arkansas metro areas, relative to the first quarter of 2007.  Only Fayetteville and Memphis showed house price declines from 2007-2011 that were comparable to the national average.  Other metro areas in the state experienced much more muted declines (or no decline at all).  Hence, several metro areas in the state have experienced net appreciation over that past 7 years.

Source:  Federal Housing Finance Agency;  seasonally adjusted by the Institute for Economic Advancement

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency; seasonally adjusted by the Institute for Economic Advancement

The table below summarizes house price changes in Arkansas metro areas over the past 5 years.  Of the eight metro areas that include parts of Arkansas, only Hot Springs and Pine Bluff have shown recent declines.  Over the past two years, metro area which has exhibited the largest house price increases is Fayetteville, where house prices declined the most during the nationwide house-price decline.  A similar situation holds in Memphis, where the declines during 2007-2011 were larger than in other parts of Arkansas, but a significant rebound in prices has taken place in the past two years.   Texarkana is an unusual case:  Recent house price increases in Texarkana have been larger than in several of the other metro areas in the state, but there was never any significant house price declines recorded in Texarkana during the housing bust.  So over the past 5 years, house prices in Texarkana have increases more than any other metro area in the state.

Source:  Federal Housing Finance Agency;  seasonally adjusted by the Institute for Economic Advancement

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency; seasonally adjusted by the Institute for Economic Advancement

 

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