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By Michael Pakko, August 20, 2010 10:44 AM

 The latest information on Arkansas employment and unemployment was released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services this morning.  The report showed encouraging signs of continuing improvement in the Arkansas labor market.  The unemployment rate ticked down one-tenth of one percent to 7.4%.   The household survey also showed that the number of unemployed persons fell by 1,800 in July, dropping below 100,000 for the first time since May 2009.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Analysis of the payroll survey is complicated by seasonal patterns.  Without seasonal adjustment, the data show employment down by nearly 11,000 in July.  However, as shown in the chart below, July is typically a low-point in the recurring seasonal cycle diplayed by employment data.  (See Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates for Arkansas MSAs.)  After seasonally adjusting the raw data, the statistics from BLS show that payroll employment rose by 3,600 jobs.  Since the end of 2009, payroll employment has increased by nearly 16,000 jobs.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

The increase was broad-based, with increases in every major sector except financial services and government.  Employment in manufacturing showed its 7th consecutive monthly increase.  Trade, transportation and utilities was up by 900 jobs, and business and professional services rose by 1,400.  Education and health services continued to expand, adding approximately 2,400 jobs in July.  The decline in government employment can be primarily attributed to layoffs of temporary census workers.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Typical summer doldrums aside, the July employment report provides additional evidence that labor markets in Arkansas are steadily improving.

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By Michael Pakko, July 30, 2010 2:21 PM

June data for metro area employment and unemployment came out earlier this week (see Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment Summary from the BLS).  According to the raw numbers—not seasonally adjusted—unemployment rates were unchanged or higher in each of the state’s metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs).   However, June is typically a month in which unemployment ticks upward for purely seasonal reasons.   One factor:  teachers and students are off for the summer, and students in particular are reported as being unemployed if they are seeking, but fail to find summer jobs.** 

After accounting for these recurrent patterns, seasonally adjusted statistics paint a much brighter picture.  Unemployment rates fell in every one of the state’s MSAs.  In many cases, the declines were substantial.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Employment statistics for June (seasonally adjusted by the BLS) showed that payrolls fell in most of Arkansas’ MSAs.  Employment was down by 0.1% in Fayetteville, down 0.9% in Fort Smith, down 0.6% in Little Rock, down 0.4% in Memphis and down 1.1% in Pine Bluff.   Employment was unchanged in Jonesboro, but was up by 0.3% in Hot Springs and up 0.2% in Texarkana.

Cumulative job losses in the state’s MSAs since the start of the recession have varied considerably.   The chart below shows the percentage decline for each MSA since December 2007.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Jonesboro has lost the fewest jobs:  total losses reached a peak of 2.2% in April but have recovered over the past two months.  Similarly, Texarkana has come back from a cumulative loss of 3.3% in December of last year to a total loss of only 1.2% as of June.  Hot Springs losses totalled 6.7% in April, but have bounced back to within 3.8% of the December 2007 level.  Employment in the remaining MSAs is at or near recent low points, having yet shown little sign of recovery.

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**The June 2010 issue of Arkansas Labor Market, from the Department of Workforce Services, includes a feature article describing some of the reasons that employment data show seasonal fluctuations.

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By Michael Pakko, July 20, 2010 11:10 AM

The latest information on Arkansas employment and unemployment was released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services this morning.  The reports indicate that the employment situation in Arkansas is continuing to improve.

The unemployment rate dropped by two-tenths of a percent, falling to 7.5 percent in June.  The number of unemployed fell by 4,100 to 100,943.  This is the lowest reading since the number of unemployed first topped 100,000 in June of 2009.   The unemployment rate would have fallen further had it not been for a contraction in the size of the labor force.   The labor force declined by more than 8,000 in June, following three months of previous declines.  The most obvious explanation for this phenomenon is an increase in the number of “discouraged workers” who have given up looking for employment–at least for the time-being.   Overall, however, the news from the June employment report should serve as a reason for more encouragement going forward.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

The payroll survey for June showed a healthy rate of job-creation:  Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 6,000 jobs (seasonally adjusted).  Since December of last year, payroll employment has risen by 11,400 and it is up by 4,200 from a year ago.  From the low-point for employment measured in February 2010, the number of jobs has increased by more than 15,000.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Recent data have shown employment gains in some of the key sectors for the Arkansas economy:  Manufacturing employment was up by 1000 jobs, and has now increased for five consecutive months.  Employment in Trade, Transportation and Utilities edged up by 800 jobs in June, recovering the job losses from earlier in the year.  Employment in Education and Health services resumed a healthy pace of job creation, increasing by 4,500 jobs in June.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Interpreting the growth in public sector employment is complicated by seasonal patterns and changes in the Census Bureau’s employment of temporary workers.  On a not-seasonally-adjusted basis, government employment was down by 4,700 jobs, with an 1,800 decline in Federal Government employment largely attributable to the winding-down of Census Bureau employment.  However, much of the decline in state and local government employment was related to typical fluctuations in public school employment.  After taking account of this school-year phenomenon, seasonally adjusted employment by government entities increased by 1,800  (with federal government employment down by 2,100 jobs and state & local employment up by a total of 3,900 jobs).

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By Michael Pakko, June 18, 2010 10:11 AM

The latest information on Arkansas employment and unemployment was released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services this morning.  The reports show that the unemployment rate dropped from 7.8% to 7.7% in May (seasonally adjusted).  This is the first decline since March 2008.  More significantly, the number of unemployed persons fell for the second consecutive month. Over the months of April and May, the number of unemployed has fallen by over 2000. 

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Nonfarm payroll employment report also contained positive news:  the number of jobs was up by 2800 in May (seasonally adjusted)*. 

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Gains were particularly notable in some of Arkansas largest sectors:  Manufacturing employment was up by 900; Trade, Transportation and Utilities was up by 2100; and Education and Health Services was up by 900.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Government employment was also up sharply +4200 jobs.  Mirroring the pattern seen in the national data for May, many of these jobs were related to temporary hiring by the Census Bureau.  Federal Government employment in Arkansas was up by 4600 in May.

Since December of 2009, employment is up by 6300 jobs (including 6000 in manufacturing).  4000 of those jobs are government-related, with an increase in private-sector employment of 2300.

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By Michael Pakko, May 21, 2010 10:44 AM

The latest information on Arkansas employment and unemployment was released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services this morning.  The unemployment rate held steady in April at 7.8 percent, while the number of employed declined slightly from March.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Although the unemployment rate itself was unchanged, the household survey showed that the number of unemployed people declined from 197.1 thousand to 106.3 thousand.  This was the first monthly drop in the number of unemployed since March of 2008.  This drop failed to have an impact on the unemployment rate, however, since the number of employed reported in the household survey also declined.

The payroll survey also indicated a slight decline in the number of jobs.  Total nonfarm payrolls were down by approximately 1600 jobs in April (seasonally adjusted).*  The April decline follows a sharp increase we saw in March (up 8900 jobs, revised).  In terms of longer-term performance, therefore, the April decline does not appear to signal any change in the trend of employment growth.  For the first four months of the year, nonfarm payrolls have increased by 3600.   Employment is stabilizing, but there is no clear indication (yet) of a resumption of long-term job growth. 

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

The decline in nonfarm payroll employment in April was largely attributable to service-providing sectors.  Goods-producing sectors had been very hard-hit during the recession so recent increases in  manufacturing employment, in particular, have represented welcome news.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

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By Michael Pakko, May 5, 2010 7:55 PM

Metro area unemployment rates for March 2010 were released last week by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services.  Over the first three months of 2010, seasonally-adjusted unemployment rates rose in all of Arkansas’ Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs).  The Pine Bluff MSA continued to register the highest unemployment rate in the state: 9.9% in March–slightly above the national average of 9.7%.  All of the state’s other metro areas were below the national average, with the lowest rate being 6.6% in the Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers MSA.

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Institute for Economic Advancement

Nonfarm payroll employment was up sharply in the statewide data for March (see previous post).  For the state’s metro areas, employment was unchanged or up slightly in six of the seven MSAs.  Only Texarkana showed a decline for the month. However, Texarkana had shown increases earlier in the year and it is the only MSA in Arkansas with positive employment growth, on net, over the most recent three months (from December).

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Compared to March of last year, employment in March 2010 was down in all of Arkansas metro areas.  In percentage terms, Jonesboro showed the smallest decline:  down by only -0.6 percent.  Having shown a sharp decline in the first three months of 2010, employment in Hot Springs is down by 3.2 percent from a year earlier.

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By Michael Pakko, April 19, 2010 8:30 AM

The March figures for Arkansas employment and unemployment came out on Friday.  The news was mixed:  The household survey showed higher unemployment while the payroll survey indicated strong employment growth, particularly in the goods-producing sectors.

The unemployment rate ticked up again, from 7.7 percent in February to 7.8 percent in March.  The household survey indicated an increase in the number of unemployed persons by nearly 900, and a decline in the number of employed by approximately 7,800.   Hence the unemployment rate reflected both an increase in unemployment and a decline in the labor force.

In contrast, the payroll survey showed a sharp increase in employment, up by nearly ten-thousand jobs (seasonally adjusted). 

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Goods-producing sectors showed notable gains:   Construction employment was up 3,100 and manufacturing employment rose by 1,600.  Month-over-month increases were also reported in information services, professional and business services, other services, and government.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

In addition to the strong payroll growth in March, the figures for February were revised upward by 1,000 jobs — it turns out that February was slightly less “dismal” than previously reported.  Over the past six months (from September 2009 to March 2010) employment has increased in construction, manufacturing, and several service-providing sectors.

It is not unusual for the household data and the payroll data to give conflicting signals, particularly on a month-to-month basis.  In addition to having different sources, the two surveys differ in the way that they measure agricultural employment, self-employment, and multiple job-holders (among other things).  

The payroll figures show signs of recovery in employment growth for some sectors.  Nevertheless, the increases are not (yet) sufficient to reduce a stubbornly-high unemployment rate.

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By Michael Pakko, March 26, 2010 3:01 PM

“… a dismal report”

The February report on state-level employment and unemployment was released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services this morning.  Set against the backdrop of expectations for a stabilizing employment situation, the Arkansas report is disappointing at best. 

Household survey

The headline news was an increase in the unemployment rate from 7.6 percent in January to 7.7 in February.  This is not a substantial change, but the upward creep is unwelcome news.  Changes in the underlying components of the unemployment rate highlight the weakness:  The number of employed was down by 1,142 and the number of unemployed was up by 1,285.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Payroll Survey

Not seasonally adjusted, nonfarm payroll employment in Arkansas fell only slightly in February (down by 300 jobs from January).  However, as shown in the chart below, January is usually a low point in the seasonal cycle of employment, with February tending to show a rebound as we head for the spring months.  After seasonal adjustment, the decline in February was substantial:  down 7,300 jobs.  In percentage terms, this represents a decline of 0.6%–the third largest drop among the 50 states in February.  This is a larger one-month loss than any we observed for Arkansas during the depths of the 2008-09 recession.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

The table below summarizes the change in employment by sector.  Employment was down in nearly every sector in February.  The largest declines were in Trade, Transportation and Utilities; Professional and Business Services; and Other Services.  Construction employment continues to fall.  In February, construction employment fell below 50,000 (seasonally adjusted) for the first time since January 1999.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

There were two relatively positive aspects of the report.  First, the data from January were revised to show a larger employment increase than previously reported.  As a result, some service-sector categories have shown positive growth, on net, over the first two months of the year.  The second positive element of the February report was manufacturing employment, which was up by 1,500 jobs.  Manufacturing employment has been experiencing a protracted period of decline.  The February increase provides further evidence that the sector is stabilizing.

One should never put too much emphasis on a single month’s observations—and the numbers released this morning are subject to future revision.  Nevertheless, taken at face value, today’s data-release represents a dismal report.

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By Michael Pakko, March 24, 2010 8:59 AM

The latest information on employment and unemployment for Arkansas Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) was released last week.   The data for January were mixed.  There were no clear signs of recovery in regional labor markets, but no further deterioration was evident either.  This is consistent with the statewide data reported in a previous post–showing the state’s unemployment rate unchanged with only a small increase in payroll employment.

Household Survey

As displayed in the table below, the household survey showed that changes in unemployment rates around the state were mixed.  The unemployment rate ticked up in the Fayetteville, Fort Smith, Hot Springs and Texarkana.  It was unchanged in Little Rock and declined in Jonesboro and Pine Bluff.  

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Institute for Economic Advancement

The drop in Pine Bluff’s unemployment rate was particularly sharp.  In recent years, Pine Bluff has experienced large swings in employment and unemployment from December to January.  The changes were smaller this year, resulting in a measured decline in the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate.   We’ll have to wait and see whether this is just a statistical fluke or a significant change.

Payroll Survey

The January payroll survey also showed mixed changes in employment.  Seasonally adjusted, January payroll employment was up slightly from the previous month in Texarkana, unchanged in Jonesboro, and down a bit in the state’s other MSAs. 

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Benchmark Revisions

This data release also included the annual benchmark revisions that have been discussed extensively in recent posts on the Arkansas Economist (MSA revisions were discussed here).  As expected, the revised data show sharply greater job losses during the recession than were previously reported — for most of the state’s MSAs.  The revised data show that Jonesboro was the only metro area to show positive growth in 2008, and all of the states MSAs suffered employment losses during 2009.  The decline in Fort Smith was particularly steep.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Although the revisions showed larger employment declines for most of Arkansas’ MSAs, the revised data for Pine Bluff show that job losses were not as large as previously reported.  In this case, it’s no fluke.  The updated statistics are based on very accurate data from the Quarterly Census of Wages and Employment (QCEW)  for 2008 and early 2009.  

The anomolous upward revision to the payroll data for Pine Bluff was anticipated in a previous post on the Arkansas Economist.  A more complete evaluation of our exercise in “forecasting a revision of history” is forthcoming.

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By Michael Pakko, March 10, 2010 5:33 PM

The payroll employment figures showed some signs of recovery in service-sector employment.  Total nonfarm payrolls increased by 1,700 jobs in January (seasonally adjusted) with increases in the categories of Financial Services, Professional and Business Services, Education and Health Services, Leisure and Hospitality, and Other Services.  We continue to see weakness in the goods-producing sectors.  Manufacturing employment had been up slightly toward the end of 2009, but was down by 1,900 jobs in January.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

The payroll employment figures that were released this morning incorporated new benchmark revisions.  As reported on previous pages of the Arkansas Economist (here, here and here), the annual exercise of reconciling data from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program with the Quarterly Census of Wages and Employment (QCEW) was expected to show sharply larger job-losses during 2009 than were previously recorded in the data.  This did, in fact, prove to be the case.  As shown in the figure below, the revised data show that payroll employment declined more sharply during 2008 and 2009 than was reported at the time, with previously unrecorded job losses accumulating to 18,200 by the end of the year (as of December). 

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

The fact that job losses during 2009 were greater than previously measured is–to some extent–old news.  However, it means that it will take longer to see employment increase to the levels we saw prior to the onset of recession.