Metro Area Employment and Unemployment – October 2019

By , November 27, 2019 11:30 AM

Unemployment rates in Arkansas metro areas were mostly unchanged in October, ticking up 0.1% in Fort Smith and Pine Bluff and down 0.1% in Texarkana. Fayetteville, Jonesboro and Little Rock remain below the statewide average of 3.5%, while Memphis, Pine Bluff and Texarkana remain above 4%.  Compared to October of 2018, unemployment rates have declined somewhat in Fayetteville, Hot Springs, and Jonesboro.  The rate in Texarkana is down a full percentage point from a year earlier.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Bureau of Labor Statistics, Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Payroll Employment
Nonfarm payroll employment surged in three metro areas in October:  Fayetteville, Hot Springs, and Jonesboro all saw employment increases of 0.5% for the month.  Fort Smith was unchanged; Little Rock, Memphis, and Texarkana saw slight declines; Pine Bluff was down 0.6%.  Over the past 12 months, employment growth has exceeded the statewide average in Fayetteville, Hot Springs, and Jonesboro.  Employment in Fort Smith has been essentially unchanged not only over the past year, but since the current statewide employment expansion began in late 2013.  Employment in Pine Bluff has been declining consistently and is now 14% lower than it was before the onset of the “Great Recession.”

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

 

Local Area Personal Income – 2018

By , November 26, 2019 11:19 AM

The Bureau of Economic Analysis recently released a new set of estimates for Local Area Personal Income for 2018, covering metropolitan areas and counties.

For Arkansas’ metro areas, the data for 2018 largely reflect a continuation of trend rates of growth.  At 6.4%, Northwest Arkansas was the only metro area to exceed the national average growth rate of 5.6%.  Four metro areas (Hot Springs, Jonesboro, Little Rock and Memphis) all had growth rates close to the Arkansas statewide average, while Fort Smith, Pine Bluff and Texarkana grew more slowly.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

The new data included revisions to annual figures dating as far back as 1998, but most of the revisions were to more recent data.  As shown in the figure below, the revisions had the effect of lowering recent growth estimates for the Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers metro area, as well as for Jonesboro and Pine Bluff.  Growth estimates for Arkansas’ other metro areas were revised upward slightly.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

In terms of per capita personal income, the 2018 data for Arkansas metro areas show estimates ranging from $34,554 in Pine Bluff to $65,306 in Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers.  The Northwest Arkansas metro was the only area of the state with per capita income exceeding the national average.

Growth rates of per capita income in 2018 tended to be less dispersed than total personal income growth.  Rapid population growth in the fastest-growing areas and slow population growth in the slower-growing areas tended to dampen the variability of growth rates compared to total personal income.  For example, after accounting for a 1.5% population decline in Pine Bluff, per capita income there expanded by 4.0%.  Rapid population growth in Northwest Arkansas meant that a 6.4% growth rate in total personal income translated to per capita income growth of only 4.3%.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

County Data
Data for Arkansas counties are summarized and illustrated in the table and map below.

Total personal income growth was positive in all counties except three (Madison, Monroe and St. Francis).  Benton County had the fastest growth, at 7.4%.  Population growth, on the other hand, was positive in only 28 of Arkansas 75 counties.  As a result, modest income gains (or even losses) in some areas translated to positive growth in per capita income.  In terms of levels of per capita income, county averages ranged from a low of $27,002 in Lincoln County to $88,890 in Benton County.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Arkansas Employment and Unemployment – October 2019

By , November 19, 2019 9:54 AM

Arkansas’ unemployment rate was steady at 3.5% in October.  As previously reported, the national unemployment rate ticked up one-tenth of a percent to 3.6% for the month.  Underlying statistics from the household survey showed that the number of employed increased by 937 and the number of unemployed rose by 689.  As a result, the labor force increased by 1,626.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Payroll Employment
Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 2,500 in October (seasonally adjusted).  Compared to a year earlier, payrolls were up by 17,900 – a 1.4% growth rate.  October’s employment increase was dominated by goods producing sectors.  Manufacturing employment was up by 1,900 and construction was up 300.  Service-providing sectors added just 500 net jobs in October.   The largest gains were in Professional and Business Services, up by 1,100.  Slight declines were registered in Retail Trade, Financial Services, Education & Health Services, and Government.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

# # #

 Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format consistent with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services, can be found hereTable-Seasonally Adjusted NFPE.

Arkansas GDP – 2019:Q2

By , November 7, 2019 2:17 PM

The latest report on state-level GDP showed that Arkansas GDP increased at a 1.8% annualized rate in the second quarter of 2019, slightly below the national average rate of 2.0%.  Growth rates ranged from 0.5% in Hawaii to 4.7% in Texas.  Arkansas’ 1.8% was the median growth rate among the 50 states.

qgdpstate1119

Over the past four quarters, Arkansas’ growth rate averaged 1.4%, compared to the national growth rate of 2.3%.  Over the past five years, Arkansas’ growth rate has persistently fallen short of the national average:  From 2014:Q2 through 2019:Q2, GDP growth averaged 2.5% for the U.S. and 1.1% for Arkansas.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The key sectors driving Arkansas’ growth in the second quarter included Agriculture, Utilities, Management of companies, and Professional services.  Government also increased significantly.  Wholesale trade and Transportation & warehousing posted declines, both here in Arkansas and nationwide.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Data Revisions
Today’s report included revisions to the most recent five years of data.  As shown in the figure below, the revisions lowered growth estimates for 2017 and raised growth for 2018.  In particular, the previously-published data had shown growth spikes in 2016:Q4 and 2017:Q2 that were significantly lowered by the revisions.  Growth estimates for 2017:Q4 and 2018:q2 were revised upward from less than 2% to nearly 4% in each of those quarters.  More recently, the originally-reported growth rate of 2.5% in the first quarter of the year was marked down to 1.6%

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Cumulatively, the data revisions had the impact of increasing estimated level of activity at the start of the year by $1.25 billion (chained 2012 dollars) — an increase of about 1.1%.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Metro Area Employment and Unemployment – September 2019

By , October 30, 2019 12:20 PM

The latest report on metro area employment and unemployment shows negligible changes in the unemployment rates of Arkansas metro areas.  Rates were unchanged from August to September in five of Arkansas’ eight metros, and showed nominal upticks of 0.1% in Hot Springs, Jonesboro, and Little Rock.  Compared to a year earlier, rates are generally unchanged or down slightly (-0.3% in Hot Springs and Jonesboro, for example) with a more substantial decline of 0.9% recorded for Texarkana.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Payroll Employment
Data on nonfarm payroll employment showed mixed changes across Arkansas metro areas.  The Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers metro area showed the largest monthly increase, up 0.5%.  Fort Smith, Hot Springs, and Pine Bluff were each down by 0.3%.  Over the most recent 12 months, payroll employment has risen in most of the metros, but is down slightly in Fort Smith and Pine Bluff.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

As shown in the last two columns of the table, and in the chart below, the longer run paths of employment in Arkansas’ metro areas continue to diverge.  The current statewide trend of modest, positive growth began around the start of 2014–a trend that is generally reflected in  growth rates around the state.  Fayetteville and Jonesboro continue to see the highest growth rates, while Fort Smith and Pine Bluff are showing little change over that 5-1/2 year period.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates, Quarterly

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES), Quarterly averages.

Arkansas Employment and Unemployment – September 2019

By , October 18, 2019 12:03 PM

News headlines regarding today’s employment report for Arkansas will probably report that the unemployment rate increased from 3.4% to 3.5%.  In reality, the numbers of employed and unemployed Arkansans were essentially unchanged in September, and the uptick in the reported unemployment rate was due to rounding error.  (Taking the calculation out to the nearest hundredth, the unemployment rate changed from 3.44% to 3.46%.)  No matter how it’s sliced, the change from August to September was not statistically significant.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

In terms of the underlying numbers, the household survey reported a decline of 522 in the number of employed (-0.04%) and an increase of 233 in the number of unemployed (+0.50%).  Compared to a year earlier, the number of employed was up by 12,666 and the number of unemployed down by 3,418.  For the past three months, changes in the totals have been minimal.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

The national unemployment rate dropped two-tenths of a percent in September, from 3.7% to 3.5%, so the point estimates for unemployment in Arkansas and the U.S. as a whole are now identical.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Payroll Employment
The report on nonfarm payroll employment showed an increase of 1,600 employees from August to September (seasonally adjusted)*.  Notable gains were reported for Construction, Education & Health Services and Leisure & Hospitality Services.  The increase in Education & Health Services was primarily attributable to the Health Care & Social Assistance sector.  The only notable monthly decline was in Manufacturing, which was down by 1,300.  Month-to-month changes in manufacturing employment have been somewhat volatile this year, but the trend is still positive, up by 1,900 from September 2018.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

The seasonally adjusted statistics show a year-over-year increase in total employment of 16,700—approximately 1.3%.  Over the same period, nonfarm payroll employment for the entire U.S. increased by 1.4%.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

# # #

 *As is always the case in September, the not-seasonally adjusted statistics showed a sharp increase in employment in Education as well as State & Local Government, attributable to teachers going back to class at private and public educational institutions.  The seasonally adjusted figures reported here account for the recurring nature of that predictable change.

Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format consistent with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services, can be found hereTable-Seasonally Adjusted NFPE.

Little Rock Regional Economic Briefing – November 14th, 2019

By , October 18, 2019 11:01 AM

LOGOS

Little Rock Regional Economic Briefing

Join us at a breakfast event on November 14th to hear from experts who will give updates on economic conditions and the outlook for the region and nation.

The Little Rock Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and Arkansas Economic Development Institute are hosting the event, which includes speakers from both institutions.

  • Kevin Kliesen, St. Louis Fed research officer and business economist, will discuss national conditions.
  • Carlos Silva, Arkansas Economic Development Institute regional economist, will give the Little Rock metro report.
  • Michael Pakko, Arkansas Economic Development Institute chief economist and state economic forecaster, will discuss the Arkansas economic outlook.

The program also will include a welcome from Robert Hopkins, senior vice president and regional executive of the Little Rock Branch, and a Q&A session following the presentations.

The briefing should be of particular interest to business leaders, academics, community development practitioners and others interested in economic conditions.

A hot buffet breakfast will be served. The event is open on a first-come, first-served basis. There is no cost to attend, but registration is required.

Questions? Contact Julie Kerr at julie.a.kerr@stls.frb.org or 501-324-8296.

Date:
Thursday, Nov. 14, 2019
Time:
7:30 – 10 a.m.
Location:
William J. Clinton Library and Museum
1200 President Clinton Ave.
Little Rock, Ark.  72203 (map it)

Register Now

Personal Consumption Expenditures – 2018

By , October 4, 2019 12:26 PM

Yesterday the BEA released state-level data on Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) for 2018.  PCE increased by 4.0% in Arkansas, well below the national average of 5.1%.*  Growth rates ranged from a high of 7.3% in Washington to a low of 3.6% in West Virginia.  Arkansas’ growth rate ranked 44th among the 50 states.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Arkansas PCE growth had been running at about the same pace as the U.S. in 2016 and 2017—and in fact, an upward revision to the Arkansas data for 2017 put Arkansas slightly ahead of the national average (4.5% vs. 4.4%).  The 4.0% growth rate for 2018 represents slowdown from 2017, but was still well-above growth in any other year since 2011.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

The slowdown between 2017 and 2018 was spread across most categories of consumer spending. The components that showed the sharpest slowdown included Recreational goods and vehicles, and Financial services and insurance. Spending categories that showed accelerated growth in 2018 included Clothing and footwear, and Gasoline and other energy goods.

Table 1 compares growth rates by spending categories for the U.S. and Arkansas. Nearly all components grew more slowly in Arkansas than the U.S., with the exception of Housing and utilities, and Final consumption spending of Nonprofit Institutions Serving Households. The largest contributors to overall growth—for both Arkansas and the U.S.—were Housing and utilities, and Health care.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Per Capita PCE
Arkansas PCE spending per person in 2018 averaged $34,095, approximately 79.7% of the U.S. average of $42,757.  The difference is not surprising:  Per capita personal income in Arkansas was 79.4% of the U.S. average in 2018.

Table 2 shows that per capita spending in Arkansas is lower than the national average for most expenditure categories, but exceeds the U.S. average for Motor vehicles and parts, and Gasoline and other energy goods. Conversely, per capita spending on Transportation services is significantly lower in Arkansas than the U.S. average. Across broad categories, Arkansans spend a larger share of their total budget on both durable and nondurable goods and less on Services. In the two categories of that represented the largest contributions to the growth of total consumer spending in 2018, Arkansans spend a smaller share of their budgets on Housing and utilities but a higher share on Health care.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

*Note:  PCE growth rates are not adjusted for inflation.

Metro Area Employment and Unemployment – August 2019

By , October 2, 2019 1:43 PM

Unemployment rates in Arkansas metropolitan areas generally held steady in August. Not seasonally adjusted rates declined in all eight metro areas, but those changes were associated with the start of the new school year at public and private educational institutions. After seasonal adjustment, unemployment rates were unchanged in six of the eight metro areas. The unemployment rate in Fort Smith ticked up 0.1% to 3.6% and the rate in Texarkana ticked down 0.1% to 4.2%. Compared to a year earlier, unemployment rates were down across the state–with the exception of Memphis and Pine Bluff which both saw rates 0.1% higher than in August 2018.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates.

Payroll Employment
Monthly changes in nonfarm payroll employment varied considerably across metro areas. Texarkana showed unusually strong job growth of 0.7%, Fayetteville and Hot Springs were both up by 0.3%, and Jonesboro was up 0.2%. Job declines were recorded for Fort Smith, Little Rock, and Pine Bluff. On a year-over year basis, employment growth rates cluster into three categories: The rapidly growing metro areas include Fayetteville, Hot Springs, Jonesboro, and Texarkana (all with higher growth rates than the national average). Slower growing metro areas include Little Rock and Memphis. The two remaining areas, Fort Smith and Pine Bluff, have both experienced employment declines over the most recent twelve months.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics

Arkansas Personal Income – 2019:Q2

By , September 24, 2019 5:21 PM

Arkansas total personal income increased at an annual rate of 5.0% in the second quarter, slightly slower than the nationwide average of 5.4%. The increase was an improvement over the first quarter growth rate (revised) of 1.9%. Over the most recent four quarters, personal income has increased by 4.0%, compared with the U.S. growth rate of 4.9%.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

The second quarter numbers featured sharp declines in farm income, which also had the effect of depressing total proprietors’ income. The news release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis noted that declining farm income was a leading contributor to earnings declines and slow growth across the agricultural heartland. The unusually sharp declines were in turn attributed to “smaller Market Facilitation Payments in the second quarter of 2019 than in the first quarter.” (The Market Facilitation Program is the major government support program that “provides assistance to farmers and ranchers with commodities directly impacted by unjustified foreign retaliatory tariffs, resulting in the loss of traditional export markets.”)  Wages and Salaries increased at a 4.7% rate — approximately the same pace as the nation. Dividends, Interest and Rent increased at a rate of 8.2% and Personal Current Transfer Receipts were up at a 7.4% pace.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Data Revisions
Today’s personal income release included annual revisions to the historical data. Data were revised as far back as 1998:Q1; however, substantive revisions were limited to the period from 2012 forward. For Arkansas, the revisions showed a consistently higher adjustment of the total income data, with generally positive effects on growth rates.  In particular, the revised figures show higher growth in 2016 and 2018 than previously reported.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

The cumulative effect of the revision was to increase the level of 2019:Q1 personal income in Arkansas by $2.2 billion. The upward revision was more than accounted for by higher estimates for Dividends, Interest and Rent, for which cumulative upward revisions totaled nearly $2.5 billion. Wage and Salary disbursements were marked up by $827 million and Personal Current Transfer Receipts were revised upward by $107 million. Farm income and proprietors’ income showed sharp downward revisions for 2018 and 2019:Q1. The cumulative impact of farm income revisions for the first quarter of 2019 totaled $1.47 billion.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

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