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Arkansas GDP – 2018:Q2

By , November 14, 2018 2:29 PM

The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced this morning that the recent acceleration in national GDP growth was reflected second quarter statistics for the 50 states:  Growth rates ranged from 2.5% in Delaware to 6.0% in Texas.  Arkansas’ growth rate was 4.4% — the tenth-highest growth rate in the nation.  As part of a comprehensive revision of the state GDP data (more below), Arkansas first quarter growth rate was also revised up from 0.0% to 2.0%.  From 2017:Q2 to 2018:Q2, Arkansas GDP growth has been 1.7%, compared to 2.9% for the U.S.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Agriculture was by far the largest contributor to Arkansas’ GDP growth, accounting for 1.27 percentage points of the state’s 4.4% growth rate.  Other sectors adding significantly to growth included Real estate, Information and Utilities.  Durable goods manufacturing was also a notable area of strength for both Arkansas and the U.S.  The only negative contributors to Arkansas growth were Finance and insurance, Retail trade and Nondurable goods manufacturing.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Comprehensive Data Revisions:
This morning’s data release incorporated the results of the BEA’s comprehensive update of GDP by state, incorporation more complete and detailed source data than was previously available.  The base year for price adjustment was also changed from 2009 to 2012.  For Arkansas, the revisions had the effect of lowering the level of GDP estimates for much of the past decade.  The revised data show a somewhat sharper downturn during the “Great Recession” of 2008-09, and also show sharply slower growth over the period 2013 through 2017.  From 2013:Q1 through 2017:Q4 the revised data show a growth rate of 0.5% compared to 1.0% in the previously published data (annual rates).

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.  Note - Previously published data have been converted from a 2009 base year to 2012.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Note – Previously published data have been converted from the 2009 base year to the new benchmark of 2012.

For more recent periods, the data revisions mark something of an improvement.  Quarterly growth rates for Arkansas were revised up from 0.0% to 2.0% for the first quarter of 2018, and up from 2.5% to 2.7% for the fourth quarter of 2017.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Although the newly-revised data give cause for reassessing the strength of Arkansas’ economic expansion over the past several years, the latest readings provide reason to be optimistic that the recent pick-up in GDP growth nationwide is also being enjoyed here in Arkansas.

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Metro Area Employment and Unemployment – September 2018

By , November 6, 2018 2:21 PM

September data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reveals an unusual pattern of unemployment rate changes: While the statewide average declined 0.1 percentage points from August to September, metro area unemployment rates rose slightly (with the exception of Fort Smith, unchanged).  This might indicate an improvement in the non-metropolitan regions of the state, but is more likely an artifact of monthly “noise” in the data and/or differences in the state and metro seasonal adjustment methodologies.  Changes over the previous twelve months (not-seasonally adjusted data) are more consistent, with five metro areas matching or exceeding the 0.2 percentage point decline statewide.  Rates in Memphis and Texarkana were higher compared to a year ago.  In fact, Texarkana earned the dubious distinction of experiencing the largest year-over-year increase in the nation.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

The figure below compares the seasonally adjusted metro area unemployment rates with the statewide average.  The eight areas have sorted into three broad categories:  The relatively rapid-growing metros of Fayetteville, Jonesboro and Little Rock have unemployment rates lower than the statewide average; Fort Smith and Hot Springs are slightly higher than the statewide average (though not significantly so) while Memphis, Pine Bluff and Texarkana have the highest unemployment rates in the state — well above the statewide average.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Payroll Employment
From August to September, nonfarm payroll employment rose sharply in Fayetteville, Hot Springs, Jonesboro, Little Rock, and Memphis.  Pine Bluff and Texarkana were unchanged, while Fort Smith suffered a 0.4% contraction.  Over the past twelve months, both Fort Smith and Pine Bluff have declined, and indeed, employment in both metros remain lower than the cyclical trough of February 2010.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

As shown in the final column of the table above and illustrated using quarterly averages in the chart below, only two metro areas have experienced robust employment growth over the past decade (Fayetteville and Jonesboro), while employment in Little Rock and Memphis is only slightly higher than at the previous cyclical peak.  Employment levels in Texarkana, Hot Springs and Fort Smith remain below pre-recession levels, as does Pine Bluff, which is down 15% from a decade ago.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

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Arkansas Employment and Unemployment – September 2018

By , October 19, 2018 12:55 PM

The latest report on employment and unemployment in Arkansas included several positive indicators.  First, the unemployment rate declined once again, dropping to 3.5%.  The national unemployment rate also declined in September, so Arkansas’ rate remains only slightly lower than the U.S. average of 3.7% (and the difference is not statistically significant).

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

The driving force behind recent declines in Arkansas’ unemployment rate is a rather sharp decline in the number of unemployed, which declined by 891 in September and has fallen by 4,400 since April.  Meanwhile, the household survey is also showing a decline in the number of employed Arkansans, down by 329 in September and down by over 9,000 over the past 12 months.  Accordingly, the labor force is contracting as well.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

At 3.5%, the Arkansas unemployment rate is at an all-time low.  While the low number of workers seeking a job is certainly a positive indicator for the strength of the labor market, recent declines in the labor force participation rate complicate the interpretation of the unemployment rate.  With the labor force declining, the labor force participation rate is significantly lower than it was during the previous economic expansion, declining in September by another 0.1 percentage point to 57.4%.  That’s down almost a full percentage point from a year ago and down nearly 6% from a decade ago.  So while a smaller fraction of the labor force is actively seeking employment, the labor force itself comprises a much smaller share of the state’s population than it was the last time we experienced low unemployment.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Payroll Employment
While the employment figures from the household survey continue to decline, the news from the payroll survey – which is generally considered a more accurate measure of job growth – is much more upbeat.  Nonfarm payroll employment expanded by 3,200 in September (seasonally adjusted).  The employment figure for August was revised upward by 1,600 as well, turning that month’s employment change from a preliminary decline of 900 jobs to a revised increase of 700 jobs.  Over the past 12 months, payroll employment is up by 13,200 jobs – approximately 1.1%.  Over the same period, nationwide employment growth was 1.7%.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

A breakdown by major sectors shows that the September increase was reflected both the goods-producing and service-providing sides of the economy:  Strong gains were registered in Education & Health Services, Professional & Business Services, Transportation & Utilities, and Wholesale Trade.  Construction and Manufacturing were both up for the month, adding to increases from earlier in the year.  The only sectors to show notable declines were Retail Trade and Other Services.  Over the past 12 months, Professional and Business Services is by far the largest contributor to job growth (+6,600 jobs), but a healthy gain of 2,800 jobs in Manufacturing also contributed to the overall increase, as did a 2,000-job increase in Transportation & Utilities.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

# # #

 *Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format compatible with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services, can be found here:  Table-Seasonally Adjusted NFPE.

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Little Rock Regional Economic Briefing

By , October 15, 2018 12:28 PM

aedi-frb

 

 LITTLE ROCK REGIONAL ECONOMIC BRIEFING
NOVEMBER 9, 2018 | 7:30 a.m. – 10:30 a.m.
CLINTON PRESIDENTIAL CENTER

Join us as Chris Varvares of IHS Markit and Dr. Michael Pakko of the Arkansas Economic Development Institute (AEDI) provide updates on economic conditions and the outlook for the nation and the state. Hosts for the event are the Little Rock Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and the Arkansas Economic Development Institute.

Varvares, co-head of U.S. economics at IHS Markit, an information and analytics firm, will present the national outlook. Pakko, chief economist and state economic forecaster with AEDI will present his annual forecast for the Arkansas economy.

A hot buffet breakfast will be served. The event is free, but register soon, because space is limited.

THE DEADLINE TO REGISTER IS NOVEMBER 5!

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Personal Consumption Expenditures – 2017

By , October 4, 2018 4:20 PM

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today that Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) rose by 4.3% in 2017, matching the nationwide growth rate.  PCE is not adjusted for inflation, so after accounting for a 1.8% increase in prices from 2016 to 2017, real PCE increased by about 2.5%.  From 2011 through 2015, Arkansas PCE growth ran slightly slower than the national average.  In 2016 and 2017, Arkansas growth rate has kept pace with the rest of the nation.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

The fastest-growing components of PCE in 2017 were Gasoline and other energy goods; Financial services and insurance; and Health care.  The gasoline and health care components were cited in the BEA report as being leading factors for growth in most states.  Notably, there were no components of spending that declined in 2017.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Per Capita PCE
On a per capita basis, PCE growth in Arkansas was 3.7%, slightly higher than the 3.6% national growth rate.  At $32,875, per capita spending in Arkansas amounted to approximately 80% of the national average.  Among the 50 states plus the District of Columbia, Arkansas ranked #49 in terms of the level of PCE per capita.  The only major component for which Arkansans spend more per person than the nationwide average is on Motor vehicles and parts.  At the other extreme, spending on Transportation services amounts to less than one-half of the per capita level nationwide.

Spending shares by component follow a familiar pattern:  Arkansans devote a larger share of their budgets to purchases of goods (which tend to display small inter-regional differences in price) and a relatively smaller share on services (for which prices are more closely related to Arkansas’ status as a low cost-of-living state).

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

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Metro Area Employment and Unemployment – August 2018

By , October 3, 2018 1:20 PM

Unemployment rates were unchanged or down slightly in Arkansas’ metro areas in August.  It had been previously reported that the statewide unemployment rate ticked down 0.1 percentage points for the month.  Today’s data release shows that the change was reflected in similar declines for Fort Smith, Hot Springs, Jonesboro and Memphis.  Pine Bluff and Texarkana saw even large declines, while unemployment rates in the Fayetteville and Little Rock metro areas were unchanged.  Compared to a year ago, unemployment rates are down 0.4 to 0.7 percentage points in six of the eight metro areas.  In Memphis and Texarkana, however, rates are slightly higher than a year ago.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the level of unemployment rates in Arkansas varied from a low of 2.5% in Northwest Arkansas to a high of 4.8% in Texarkana.  Unemployment rates were below the statewide average in Fayetteville, Jonesboro, and Little Rock; and were higher than the statewide average in Memphis, Pine Bluff and Texarkana.  Unemployment rates in Hot Springs and Fort Smith are essentially the same as the statewide figure.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Payroll Employment
Nonfarm payroll employment was down slightly on a statewide basis in August, but changes among metro areas were mixed.  Fayetteville, Fort Smith, Jonesboro and Memphis registered slight gains, while Hot Springs and Little Rock saw employment declines.  Pine Bluff and Texarkana were unchanged.  Over the past year, employment has been unchanged or down slightly in Fort Smith, Hot Springs and Pine Bluff.  All other metro areas have seen net increases, with the magnitude of gains particularly notable in Fayetteville, Jonesboro, and Memphis.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Household vs. Payroll Employment
In the context of the statewide numbers, we have noted that the measures of employment estimated from the household survey have been growing at a significantly slower pace than the payroll employment figures.  Over the most recent six months, the household survey (used to calculate the unemployment rate) has declined by 0.3% statewide, while the payroll survey is showing an employment increase of 0.6%.  As shown in the table below, this discrepancy carries over to several of the state’s metro areas.  The differences are largest in Fort Smith, Hot Springs and Texarkana.  Although both sets of employment estimates will be revised early next year, the payroll survey is generally considered to be the more accurate of the two.  Consequently, employment conditions in the state’s metro areas are better expressed in the recent statistics on payroll employment, and the household data (including unemployment rates) are more likely to be revised in those metro areas where the discrepancies are the largest.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

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Arkansas Personal Income – 2018:Q2

By , September 25, 2018 1:27 PM

Total personal income increased at an annualized rate of 5.1% in the second quarter of 2018, recording the 7th highest growth rate among the 50 states.  Nationwide, personal income rose at a rate of 4.2% for the quarter.  The news release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis noted that Arkansas was one of nine states where the volatile farm earnings component contributed one-half a percentage point or more to increases in personal income.  At a 91% annualized growth rate, farm income actually contributed over a full percentage point to Arkansas personal income growth.  Excluding farm income, Arkansas incomes expanded at a 4.1% rate, slightly higher than the 4.0% national average.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Among other major components, wage and salary growth, plus supplements, grew slightly faster in Arkansas than the U.S. average.  Proprietors’ income in Arkansas was boosted by a 111% increase in Farm proprietors’ income, but nonfarm proprietors’ income rose at a rate of only 4.5% — matching the nationwide average.  Growth in Dividends, interest, and rent (3.7%) exceeded the U.S. growth rate (3.3%) while Personal current transfer receipts grew at a slightly slower rate (3.9% for Arkansas compared to 4.1% for the U.S.).

Percent changes from quarter to quarter can be quite volatile, so a better measure of longer term growth trends is the percentage change from a year earlier.  By this measure, From 2017:Q2, Arkansas personal income increased 4.3%, compared to an gain of 4.6% nationwide.  As illustrated in the chart below, Arkansas income growth has generally been slower than the U.S. average in recent years.  From 2015:Q1, year-over-year growth has averaged 3.2% in Arkansas, 0.8% below the nationwide average of 4.0%.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Earnings by Industry
Total earnings (which include wages and salaries, supplements and proprietors’ income) also grew faster than the U.S. average, 3.6% compared to 3.2%.  The table breaks down the contribution of earnings by industry to total personal income.  Once again, the role of farm earnings in boosting total personal income is apparent.   Among other sectors, Arkansas personal income was boosted by growth in Manufacturing; Professional, scientific, and technical services; and Health care and social assistance.  Nondurable goods manufacturing, in particular, contributed more to Arkansas income growth it did to U.S. growth.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Data Revisions:
Today’s data release included a comprehensive update of state personal income, incorporating more detailed and complete source data, updated seasonal factors, and the results of the July 2018 comprehensive update of the National Income and Product Accounts.  The figures below illustrate the nature of the revisions for Arkansas total personal income.  In terms of levels, the revised data show slightly lower incomes in early 2016, but the revisions are cumulatively all positive since then.  The revisions result in higher growth estimates for Arkansas:  Over the four quarters ended 2018:Q1, previously published data had reported a growth rate of 2.0%, and the data revisions increased that estimate to 3.5%.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

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Arkansas Employment and Unemployment – August 2018

By , September 21, 2018 1:28 PM

The employment report for August featured yet another drop in Arkansas’ unemployment rate – down from 3.7% to 3.6%.  That matches the historic low for the series last seen in May of 2017.  The lower rate was driven by substantial declines in the reported number of unemployed over the past two months:  The number of unemployed in August was down by over 1,400 following a decline of about 1,300 in July.  Over the most recent four months, the number unemployed has fallen by over 3,500.  Meanwhile, the household survey is also showing persistent declines in the number of employed:  Over the past 12 months there have been only two modest increases in employment, with a cumulative decline of 8,600.  As a result of these two trends, the labor force (employed plus unemployed) has also been moving lower over the past year.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Payroll Employment
The data on nonfarm payroll employment in Arkansas showed a slight decline August – down 900 jobs from July (seasonally adjusted).  The July total was also revised downward by 600 jobs compared to the report issued last month.  Monthly declines were distributed across many sectors, including some that have been showing notable growth in recent months.  Professional and Business services, which have increased by 6,100 jobs over the past year showed one-month a decline of 1,100 in August.  Both Construction and Manufacturing employment were also down for the month after having previously shown some welcome signs of growth.  One bright spot was Retail Trade, where 1,800 net new jobs were reported.  Over the past twelve months, total nonfarm payroll employment has expanded by 8,500 jobs — an increase of about 0.7%.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Two Measures of Employment
In our analysis of the June report, we noted that the household and payroll surveys were appearing to diverge.  The discrepancy continues to hold:  In the six months ending in August, the payroll report shows an increase of 0.6% while the household survey shows a 0.3% decline.  Of the two measures, the payroll survey is generally considered to be more accurate, although both will be subject to revision early next year.  Preliminary data from a third source of information on employment trends, the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages,  tends to support the indication from the payroll survey: somewhat slow but positive employment growth.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

# # #

 *Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format compatible with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services, can be found here:  Table-Seasonally Adjusted NFPE.

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Metro Area GDP – 2017

By , September 18, 2018 2:02 PM

This morning, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released data on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Metropolitan Area for 2017.   Among metro areas covering parts of Arkansas, Northwest Arkansas (Fayetteville) saw the most rapid growth (up 3.4%) while Pine Bluff fared the worst (a decline of 1.7%).  Three of the eight exceeded the statewide growth rate of 1.1% but Fayetteville was the only metro area in the state to outpace the nation’s growth rate of 2.1% .

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

The data for Metropolitan Areas generally show a great deal of variability from year to year, and are subject to substantial revision.  Today’s release included data revisions dating all the way back to 2001, but there were no revisions of any substance in Arkansas prior to 2010.  The table below shows how the revisions affected estimates of growth rates in 2016.  Fayetteville saw an upward revision from 3.9% to 5.6% and the growth rate for Hot Springs — which initially showed a contraction of 1.7% — was revised up to a positive growth rate of 0.5%.  Even more dramatically, the 2016 growth rate for Pine Bluff was revised from -1.4% to +3.2%.  Data for other metro areas showed relatively modest downward revisions.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

The figure below shows the previously-published and revised GDP growth rates for 2010-2017.  In addition to showing the magnitude of revisions to recent data, the figure also displays the differences in growth patterns that have emerged among Arkansas’ metro areas over the course of the decade.  Fayetteville has shown positive growth every year, while the economic expansion in other metro areas has been interrupted by at least one year of contraction.  Declines have been particularly large and/or persistent in Fort Smith, Pine Bluff and Texarkana.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

The cumulative effect of these growth patterns is that GDP in half of the state’s metro areas remains lower than the previous cyclical peak (2007).  As shown below, the cumulative 10-year growth rate for Fayetteville is a remarkable 38% — even after accounting for the sharp decline that took place over the 2008-09 recession.  The recession left Jonesboro essentially unscathed and steady growth since has resulted in a cumulative 10-year expansion of over 17%.  On the other hand, the 10-year growth rates in Fort Smith and Pine Bluff are -7.0% and -15.5%, respectively.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Per Capita GDP
A broad measure of a region’s productivity is its output per resident:  Real GDP per capita.  Measured in constant, inflation-adjusted 2009 dollars, GDP per capita in Arkansas was $36,714 — about 72% of the U.S. average of $51,337.  Fayetteville, Little Rock, and Memphis all had per capita GDP amounting to 90% or more of the national average, while the state’s other metro areas had considerably lower levels of output per person.  Hot Springs had the lowest GDP per capita — $28,274 or about 55% of the national average.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Real GDP per capita also provides an informative decomposition of GDP growth:  A region can be experiencing overall economic growth due to population growth or productivity growth or both. As shown in the table below, population growth was positive in all metro areas except Pine Bluff where an overwhelming share of the total decline in real GDP was associated with an outflow of people (although output per capita also declined).   In Fort Smith, GDP per capita declined, but an increase in population drove total output growth into positive territory.  In other metro areas, population growth and productivity growth went hand-in-hand in 2017.

Sources:  Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau

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Metro Area Employment and Unemployment – July 2018

By , August 29, 2018 4:51 PM

Unemployment rates were generally lower in Arkansas’ metro areas in July.  Compared to July of 2017, rates were lower in all metro areas except for Memphis and Texarkana (not-seasonally adjusted data).  Today’s data release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics noted that rates were “lower in July than a year earlier in 323 of the 388 metropolitan areas, higher in 41 areas, and unchanged in 24 areas.”  Measured using seasonally adjusted data, unemployment rates were also down from the previous month in all metro areas except Memphis.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Metropolitan Area Estimates

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

The unemployment rate declines registered in July contribute to a downward shift in rates over the past three months.  From April to July, rates were down by magnitudes ranging from -0.2 percentage points in Jonesboro to -0.6 percentage points in Little Rock.  The exceptions were again Memphis and Texarkana, each of which has seen the unemployment rate creep upward by 0.4 percentage points since April.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Metropolitan Area Estimates

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Payroll Employment 
Nonfarm payroll employment showed mixed changes in July.  Little Rock, Memphis and Pine Bluff all saw monthly increases, while Fort Smith and Hot Springs experienced declines.  Payroll employment was essentially unchanged in Fayetteville, Jonesboro and Texarkana.  Compared to a year ago, employment is up an all metro areas except Hot Springs.  The areas with the strongest employment growth continue to be in the Northwest and Northeast corners of the state – Fayetteville and Jonesboro.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

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