Arkansas Economic Development Institute

Category: Arkansas Taxable Sales

Arkansas Taxable Sales – 2017:Q2

By , August 16, 2017 1:04 PM

The growth rate of Arkansas Taxable Sales (ATS) surged in the second quarter of 2017, increasing by 2.2% (an 8.9% annual rate).  From the second quarter of 2006, ATS has increased by 4.8%.  Although gasoline prices were unchanged from the first quarter to the second quarter, seasonally adjusted gasoline sales were down by 10%.  Accordingly, Arkansas Taxable Sales Including Gasoline (ATSIG) increased at a lower rate than ATS, rising 1.5% for the quarter.

Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Arkansas Economic Development Institute

Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Arkansas Economic Development Institute

Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Arkansas Economic Development Institute

Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Arkansas Economic Development Institute

Since the end of the 2008-09 recession, ATS and ATSIG have grown at average rates of 3.1% and 2.9%, respectively.  Over the same period, however, inflation has averaged about 1.5%.  Hence, only about half of the expansion in taxable sales over the past 8 years can be attributable to real (inflation-adjusted) growth.

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Arkansas Taxable Sales (ATS) is calculated by the Arkansas Economic Development Institute to serve as a timely proxy for Arkansas retail sales. The series is derived from sales and use tax data, adjusting for the relative timing of tax collections and underlying sales, changes in tax laws, and seasonal patterns in the data.  Arkansas Taxable Sales Including Gasoline (ATSIG) incorporates data on the state motor fuel tax and gasoline prices from the Oil Price Information Service. A spreadsheet of the monthly and quarterly data is available here: Arkansas Taxable Sales 2017:Q2 (Excel file).

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Arkansas Taxable Sales – 2017:Q1

By , May 10, 2017 4:14 PM

Arkansas Taxable Sales (ATS) rose 0.1% in the first quarter of 2017 — up 2.1% from a year earlier.  From the end of the recession in 2009:Q2 through the first quarter of 2017, ATS has expanded at an annual rate of 2.9%.

Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

Gasoline prices averaged $2.11 during the first quarter, up from $2.00 in the fourth quarter of 2016.  As a result, expenditures on gasoline were up 8.0% in the first quarter and were 27.7% higher than in the first quarter of 2016.  Incorporating this source of increased spending, Arkansas Taxable Sales Including Gasoline (ATSIG) increased by 0.5% in the first quarter of 2017, and were 3.3% higher than a year earlier.

Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

# # #

Arkansas Taxable Sales (ATS) is calculated by the Institute for Economic Advancement to serve as a timely proxy for Arkansas retail sales. The series is derived from sales and use tax data, adjusting for the relative timing of tax collections and underlying sales, changes in tax laws, and seasonal patterns in the data.  Arkansas Taxable Sales Including Gasoline (ATSIG) incorporates data on the state motor fuel tax and gasoline prices from the Oil Price Information Service. A spreadsheet of the monthly and quarterly data is available here: Arkansas Taxable Sales 2016:Q4 (Excel file).

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Arkansas Taxable Sales – 2016:Q3

By , November 22, 2016 11:13 AM

After declining during the first half of the year, Arkansas Taxable Sales (ATS) rose 2.2% in the third quarter of 2016.  On a year-over-year basis, taxable sales were up 1.3% from the third quarter of 2015.  Gasoline sales also rose in the third quarter (+1.6%), despite a slight reduction in the average price of gasoline in Arkansas.  As a result, Arkansas Taxable Sales Including Gasoline (ATSIG) also rose by 2.2% from the second quarter to the third.  Over the past four quarters, ATSIG has increased by 0.6% while gasoline prices have fallen from $2.28/gallon in 2015:Q3 to $1.985 in the most recent quarter.

Sources:  Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

From the trough of the recession (2009:Q2) through the third quarter of 2016, ATS has grown at an average rate of 3.0%.  With gasoline expenditures falling at a 2.1% annual rate over the same period, ATSIG has increased at a 2.8% rate.  As measured by the price index for personal consumption expenditures, inflation has averaged 1.5% over the 7-year expansion, so that real (inflation adjusted) measures of ATS and ATSIG have grown at rates of 1.5% and 1.3%, respectively.

As shown in the final figure below, gasoline prices are at about the same level as at the trough of the recession–around $2/gallon.  However, spending on gasoline as a percent of total taxable sales has fallen to less than 5%, down from around 6% in 2009.  Although expenditures on gasoline have increased over the past 7 years, lower gas prices have allowed for spending on non-fuel items to increase as a share of total expenditures.

Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

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Arkansas Taxable Sales (ATS) is calculated by the Institute for Economic Advancement to serve as a timely proxy for Arkansas retail sales. The series is derived from sales and use tax data, adjusting for the relative timing of tax collections and underlying sales, changes in tax laws, and seasonal patterns in the data.  Arkansas Taxable Sales Including Gasoline (ATSIG) incorporates data on the state motor fuel tax and gasoline prices from the Oil Price Information Service. A spreadsheet of the monthly and quarterly data is available here: Arkansas Taxable Sales 2016:Q1 (Excel file).

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Arkansas Taxable Sales – 2016:Q1

By , July 20, 2016 4:22 PM

Arkansas Taxable Sales Including Gasoline (ATSIG) declined by 1.0% from 2015:Q4 to 2016:Q1, following a decline of 0.5% in the previous quarter.  Compared to a year earlier, ATSIG increased by only 1.0%.  Much of the weakness in the growth rate of ATSIG is attributable to low gasoline prices.  The average price of gasoline in Arkansas in the first quarter was $1.66, down from $1.94.  As a result, spending on gasoline declined by 12.1% (seasonally adjusted).

Not all the slow growth in sales can be attributed to low gas prices, however.  Excluding gasoline, Arkansas Taxable Sales (ATS) declined by 0.5% in the first quarter, following a nearly flat fourth quarter.  From 2015:Q1 to 2016:Q1, ATS rose by only 1.8%.  After adjusting for inflation (as measured by the price index for personal consumption expenditures), real ATS was up only 0.8% over the four-quarter period.

Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement.

Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement.

Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement.

Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement.

Given the state’s low unemployment and relatively healthy income growth, it is surprising that the growth rate of Arkansas Taxable Sales has been so sluggish.  Since the trough of the “great recession” in 2009:Q2, ATS has increased at an annual rate of only 3.0%.  Over the same period, U.S. Retail Sales have been growing at a 4.4% pace.  Although the national figures are not completely comparable to ATS, the discrepancy between the growth rates of consumer spending on the national and state levels is notable.  The growing share of internet shopping (which is included in U.S. Retail Sales but not necessarily in ATS) might account for a portion of the discrepancy, but is unlikely explain the difference completely.

Sources:  Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, U.S. Census Bureau, Institute for Economic Advancement.

Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, U.S. Census Bureau, Institute for Economic Advancement.

# # #

Arkansas Taxable Sales (ATS) is calculated by the Institute for Economic Advancement to serve as a timely proxy for Arkansas retail sales. The series is derived from sales and use tax data, adjusting for the relative timing of tax collections and underlying sales, changes in tax laws, and seasonal patterns in the data.  Arkansas Taxable Sales Including Gasoline (ATSIG) incorporates data on the state motor fuel tax and gasoline prices from the Oil Price Information Service. A spreadsheet of the monthly and quarterly data is available here: Arkansas Taxable Sales 2016:Q1 (Excel file).

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Arkansas Taxable Sales – 2015:Q1

By , June 1, 2015 12:39 PM

In the first quarter of 2015, Arkansas Taxable Sales Including Gasoline (ATSIG) declined by 1.2%.  Compared to the first quarter of 2014, ATSIG was up by only 0.6%.  However, much of the decline in overall consumer spending can be attributed to low gasoline prices.  Based on data from the Oil Price Information Service, the average price of a gallon of gasoline in Arkansas during the first quarter of the year was only $2.10, down 21.6% from the previous quarter and down 33.9% from a year earlier.  Moreover, the number of gallons of gasoline purchased dropped as well:  13.8% lower than a year earlier.  Total expenditures on gasoline were down 31.2% for the quarter (seasonally adjusted) and were down 38.7% from the year before.

With a smaller share of household budgets going toward purchases of gasoline, the non-gasoline component of Arkansas Taxable Sales (ATS) surged higher — up by 1.0% from the previous quarter and up 3.9% from the previous year.  The non-gasoline measure of taxable sales — based on sales tax collection data from the Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration — has increased by 20.4% since the trough of the recession (2009:Q2), reflecting an average annual growth rate of 3.3%.

Sources:  Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement.

Sources: Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement.

Sources:  Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement.

Sources: Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement.

# # #

Arkansas Taxable Sales (ATS) is calculated by the Institute for Economic Advancement to serve as a timely proxy for Arkansas retail sales. The series is derived from sales and use tax data, adjusting for the relative timing of tax collections and underlying sales, changes in tax laws, and seasonal patterns in the data.  Arkansas Taxable Sales Including Gasoline (ATSIG) incorporates data on the state motor fuel tax and gasoline prices from the Oil Price Information Service. A spreadsheet of the monthly and quarterly data is available here: Arkansas Taxable Sales 2015:Q1 (Excel file).

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Arkansas Taxable Sales – 2014:Q3

By , December 8, 2014 3:41 PM

A proxy for state retail spending, Arkansas Taxable Sales (ATS), increased by 0.2% in the third quarter of 2013 (seasonally adjusted).  Compared to the previous year, ATS was up 1.0%.  Arkansas Taxable Sales Including Gasoline (ATSIG) also rose by 0.2% for the quarter and was up 0.9% compared the third quarter of 2013.  The slightly slower year-over-year growth rate for ATSIG reflects the effect of lower gasoline prices on total household spending.  Since the trough of the recession, ATS has increased by 15.8% — an average annual percentage rate of 2.8%.  Meanwhile, ATSIG increased by 18.0% — or 3.2% annually.

Sources: Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

Sources: Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

Sources: Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

Sources: Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

Over the past four quarters, the price index for personal consumption expenditures has increased by about 1.5%.  Accordingly, the 1.0% (0.9%) rate of increase in ATS (ATSIG) translates to negative growth after adjusting for inflation.   As shown in the figure below, real inflation-adjusted growth in ATS and ATSIG has been considerably slower than their actual dollar amounts.  Both measures remain below their pre-recession levels, having increased by a total of 5.8% (ATS) and 7.8% (ATSIG) since the trough of the recession.

Sources: Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Sources: Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

 # # #

Arkansas Taxable Sales (ATS) is calculated by the Institute for Economic Advancement to serve as a timely proxy for Arkansas retail sales. The series is derived from sales and use tax data, adjusting for the relative timing of tax collections and underlying sales, changes in tax laws, and seasonal patterns in the data.  Arkansas Taxable Sales Including Gasoline (ATSIG) incorporates data on the state motor fuel tax and gasoline prices from the Oil Price Information Service.

A spreadsheet of the data is available here: Arkansas Taxable Sales 2014:Q3 (Excel file).

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Arkansas Taxable Sales – 2014:Q1 (Preliminary*)

By , May 7, 2014 4:06 PM

Preliminary data on Arkansas sales and use tax collection show that Arkansas Taxable Sales (ATS) increased by 2.1% in the first quarter of 2014 (seasonally adjusted).  The first quarter increase follows two consecutive quarterly declines in the second half of 2013.  Incorporating information on gasoline prices and sales, a broader measure of sales — Arkansas Taxable Sales Including Gasoline (ATSIG) — increased by 2.2%.

On a year over year basis, ATS was up 3.6% and ATSIG was up 2.8%.  From the trough of the recession (2009:Q2) through the most recent quarter, ATS and ATSIG have expanded at average annual rates of 3.2% and 3.7%, respectively.

Sources: Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

Sources: Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

Sources: Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

Sources: Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

# # #

Arkansas Taxable Sales (ATS) is calculated by the Institute for Economic Advancement to serve as a timely proxy for Arkansas retail sales. The series is derived from sales and use tax data, adjusting for the relative timing of tax collections and underlying sales, changes in tax laws, and seasonal patterns in the data.  Arkansas Taxable Sales Including Gasoline (ATSIG) incorporates data on the state motor fuel tax and gasoline prices from the Oil Price Information Service.

A spreadsheet of the data is available here: Arkansas Taxable Sales 2014:Q1(P) (Excel file)

* Data are preliminary until the release of the DFA report, Arkansas Fiscal Notes for April 2014, and will be updated when information becomes available.

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Arkansas Taxable Sales – 2013:Q2 (Final)

By , September 17, 2013 11:59 AM

Final data for Arkansas Taxable Sales in the second quarter are now available.  The revisions to the preliminary estimates reported last month were miniscule:  The revised figure for June was only 0.05% lower than the estimate.  As a result, the summary table for Arkansas Taxable Sales (ATS) and Arkansas Taxable Sales Including Gasoline (ATSIG) are essentially unchanged from the preliminary version.

Sources: Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

Preliminary data for July suggest that taxable sales are off to a good start for the third quarter.  Compared to a year earlier, ATS was up over 9% in July.  Month-to-month volatility has recently been high, but the trend shows continuing growth.

Sources: Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

 # # #

Arkansas Taxable Sales (ATS) is calculated by the Institute for Economic Advancement to serve as a timely proxy for Arkansas retail sales. The series is derived from sales and use tax data, adjusting for the relative timing of tax collections and underlying sales, changes in tax laws, and seasonal patterns in the data.  Arkansas Taxable Sales Including Gasoline (ATSIG) incorporates data on the state motor fuel tax and gasoline prices from the Oil Price Information Service.

A spreadsheet of the data is available here: Arkansas Taxable Sales 2013:Q2 (Excel file)

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Arkansas Taxable Sales – 2013:Q2 (Preliminary*)

By , August 7, 2013 10:02 AM

Although the information is not yet complete, preliminary data on Arkansas Taxable Sales (ATS) in the second quarter indicates a resumption of robust growth in consumer spending.  In the first quarter of the year ATS growth slowed to near zero (+0.2%, revised), but the preliminary second quarter figures put the growth rate at 3.1% (seasonally adjusted).  The first quarter slowdown coincided with flat personal income growth, largely associated with changes in Federal tax rates.

Slightly lower gasoline prices along with a drop in the number of gallons sold led to a 5.0% decline in expenditures on gasoline.  Consequently, Arkansas Taxable Sales Including Gasoline (ATSIG) increased by only 2.4% in the second quarter.

Compared to a year earlier, ATS was up 4.3% and ATSIG was up 3.8%.

Sources: Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

 

Sources: Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

 # # #

Arkansas Taxable Sales (ATS) is calculated by the Institute for Economic Advancement to serve as a timely proxy for Arkansas retail sales. The series is derived from sales and use tax data, adjusting for the relative timing of tax collections and underlying sales, changes in tax laws, and seasonal patterns in the data.  Arkansas Taxable Sales Including Gasoline (ATSIG) incorporates data on the state motor fuel tax and gasoline prices from the Oil Price Information Service.

A spreadsheet of the data is available here: Arkansas Taxable Sales 2013:Q2(P) (Excel file)

* Data are preliminary until the release of the DFA report, Arkansas Fiscal Notes for July 2013, and will be updated when information becomes available.

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Arkansas Taxable Sales – Final Figures for 2013:Q1

By , May 21, 2013 3:31 PM

Final figures for Arkansas Taxable Sales are now in:  The revised statistics are essentially unchanged from the preliminary data we published two weeks ago.  Based on state sales tax receipts, Arkansas Taxable Sales (ATS) were up 0.3% in the first quarter.  Compared to the first quarter of 2012, sales were up 0.5%.  Incorporating data from the state’s motor fuel tax, Arkansas Taxable Sales Including Gasoline (ATSIG) were also up 0.3% for the quarter — and unchanged from the previous year.

Sources: Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

Sources: Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

Since the recession trough of 2009:Q2, ATS has increased by 12.1% — averaging 3.1% growth at an annual rate.  The corresponding increase for ATSIG is 15.1% — an annual growth rate of 3.8%.  Over that 15-quarter period, inflation has averaged 2.0%, implying that real (inflation-adjusted) sales growth has averaged 1.1% to 1.8%.

By comparison, Census data on national retail sales show a 14-quarter increase of 24.5% — an average annual rate of 6.0%, or 4.0% after inflation.

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

# # #

Arkansas Taxable Sales (ATS) is calculated by the Institute for Economic Advancement to serve as a timely proxy for Arkansas retail sales. The series is derived from sales and use tax data, adjusting for the relative timing of tax collections and underlying sales, changes in tax laws, and seasonal patterns in the data.  Arkansas Taxable Sales Including Gasoline (ATSIG) incorporates data on the state motor fuel tax and gasoline prices from the Oil Price Information Service.

A spreadsheet of the data is available here: Arkansas Taxable Sales 2013:Q1 (Excel file)

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