Metro Area Employment and Unemployment – April 2019

By , May 29, 2019 3:30 PM

Unemployment rates moved lower in most of Arkansas’ metro areas in April, augmenting declines from the previous month.  Rates were unchanged in Memphis and Pine Bluff, but declined in all other metro areas.  Compared to a year earlier, rates were lower in all eight metro areas, with declines ranging from -0.2 in Pine Bluff to -0.8 in Fort Smith.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

With recent declines, unemployment rates now range from a high of 5.2% in Pine Bluff to a low of 2.7% in the Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers metropolitan area.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Payroll Employment
Nonfarm payroll employment changes were mixed in April.  Four metro areas saw increased from the previous month, but three experienced declines (with the largest being Pine Bluff, down 0.6%).  Employment was essentially unchanged in Memphis.  Over the past twelve months, employment has increased by more than 1.0% across most of the state, but has been flat in Fort Smith and Pine Bluff.

The table below presents a slightly modified view of payroll employment tracking that we have been following here on the Arkansas Economist:  Instead of measuring changes from the beginning of the current nationwide employment expansion (February 2010), the third column of the table reports cumulative employment growth since the present growth phase began in Arkansas, December 2013.*  Since that time, statewide employment growth has been a cumulative 8.3%.  Northwest Arkansas and Jonesboro are the only the two metro areas that have grown faster than the statewide average, but all of of Arkansas metro areas (except Pine Bluff) have experienced employment growth over the subsequent 5+ years.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

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*The selection of December 2013 as the start of the present employment expansion is not rigorously scientific, but it is consistent with other business-cycle patterns.  GDP and income data suggest that Arkansas experienced a modest local recession in 2012, with negative employment growth through the end of 2013.  As shown in the figure below, employment began to expand during 2014 and has continued at a relatively steady pace since then.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

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Regional Price Parities – 2017

By , May 23, 2019 5:20 PM

The Bureau of Economic Analysis came out with their latest figures on real personal income for states and metropolitan areas last week.  A distinctive feature of these “real” income estimates is that they are adjusted for changes in prices that reflect not only the national inflation rate, but differences in local and regional price levels as well.  The annual report on real incomes therefore provides an annual reminder that Arkansas’ low cost-of-living is a partial offset to our state’s relatively low income levels.  In the latest report, covering 2017, Arkansas was once again near the bottom of the list, with the second-lowest Regional Price Parity (RPP) in the nation.  Arkansas’ RPP of 86.5 means that prices are 13.5% below the national average.  The lowest RPP in 2017 was Mississippi (85.7) while the highest was Hawaii (118.5).

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

One of the key implications of the RPP statistics is that after adjustment for differences in the cost of living, Arkansas personal incomes are closer to the national average than simple dollar-value comparisons suggest.  As shown in the figure below, nominal (dollar-valued) income in Arkansas is more than $10,000 lower than the national average.  After accounting for price-level differences, the gap closes to less than $4,000 (in 2012 inflation-adjusted dollars).  In comparisons among the 50 states, Arkansas ranks #46 in nominal per capita income.  After adjusting for the cost of living, Arkansas ranks #39 .

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

As a percent of the nationwide average, Arkansas per capita income is approximately 80% of the U.S. in dollar terms, but is over 92% after adjustment for price differences.  Comparisons with the national average are boosted by relative-price adjustments in all parts of the state — some more than others.  In non-metropolitan areas of the state, nominal incomes are only 64% of the U.S. average while real incomes are 78%.  The overall figures for Arkansas’ metropolitan areas are 89% for nominal income and 101% for real income — after adjusting for price differences, the standard-of-living in Arkansas metro areas is actually higher than the national average.  Differences among metro areas are also significant.   Per capita personal income in Northwest Arkansas is above the U.S. average in both nominal and real terms, whereas Pine Bluff has nominal incomes that are only 64% of the U.S. in dollar terms and 78% after adjusting for prices.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

The price indexes used to make these adjustments are broken down into three categories: Goods, Rents, and Other Services.  Arkansas prices in all categories are below the national average, but Rents are particularly low in Arkansas — especially in non-metropolitan areas of the state.

RPP2017-tab

Because the RPP statistics compare local prices to the nationwide average, it is possible to string together changes in RPPs along with changes in the U.S. overall price index to generate statistics on local price changes (loosely speaking, local inflation).  The figure below shows the annualized rates of price change over the 5-year period from 2012-2017.  The rates of price-level changes in Arkansas have generally been lower than the U.S. inflation rate of 1.2%.  The only exceptions are Hot Springs and Jonesboro, where local inflation rates have been approximately 1.3%.  The lowest rate of price-change in the state was in Pine Bluff, where annual local inflation has averaged only 0.6% per year.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Finally, the whole point of this exercise is to measure the growth rate of real, inflation-adjusted incomes.  In 2017, nominal per capita income growth was 3.3%, slightly below the national average rate of 3.6%.  But with slower growth in prices, more of Arkansas’ growth translates to real income gains:  After price adjustment, real per capita income growth in Arkansas was 2.3% compared to 1.9% for the U.S.  Among Arkansas’ metro areas, Hot Springs had the highest nominal growth rate (3.9%), but relatively rapid price increases (2.8%) diminished the purchasing power of those gains, resulting in real growth of only 1.1%.  Non-metropolitan regions of the state experienced smaller price increases than the metropolitan areas, yielding real per capita income growth of 3.3%.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

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Arkansas Employment and Unemployment – April 2019

By , May 17, 2019 1:50 PM

The latest state employment report shows that the extended period of low unemployment and slow steady employment growth continues.  Arkansas’ unemployment rate ticked back down to 3.6% in April, matching the all-time record low set in the spring of 2017 and reattained last summer.  Recent changes in the unemployment rate, amounting to movements up or down by 0.1%, are generally not statistically significant.  The month-to-month news can best be summarized by noting that the unemployment rate remains below 4.0%, as it has been for nearly three years now.  The national unemployment rate declined from 3.8% to 3.6% in April, so the state and national rates remain indistinguishable.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

The April report showed a decline of about 1,100 in the number of unemployed Arkansans, pushing the total back below 50,000.  The number of employed increased by 2,100, implying an increase in the labor force of approximately 1,000 people.  Over the past 12 months, the data from the household survey indicate an increase in Arkansas employment of approximately 10,700.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Payroll Data
Nonfarm payroll employment was reported up by 200 in April, a relatively small increase on top of a small upward revision to the March data (seasonally adjusted).  Goods-producing sectors accounted for all of April’s net job growth, with service-providing sectors unchanged overall.  Manufacturing employment was down 1,200 for the month.  Nevertheless, growth in manufacturing over the past 12 months still accounts for over a quarter of net job creation.  Wet weather this spring has constrained some construction activity, but construction employment was up by 1,400 jobs in April.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

From April 2018 through April 2019, payroll employment has expanded by 13,400 – approximately 1.1%.  Over half of the increase is attributable to goods-producing sectors (manufacturing and construction).  Among service-providing sectors, most of the growth over the past year has come from Education & Health Services and Leisure & Hospitality Services, both up by 1,900 jobs.  Professional & Business Services, which had been the fastest-growing sector for most of the current economic expansion, appears to have leveled-off, with zero net growth over the past 12 months.

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 *Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format compatible with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services, can be found here:  Table-Seasonally Adjusted NFPE.

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Metro Area Employment and Unemployment – March 2019

By , May 2, 2019 5:11 PM

The revisions to the Local Area Unemployment Statistics data for metro areas is finally complete and was released with yesterday’s metropolitan area employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  The revised time series for metro unemployment rates (seasonally adjusted) is shown in the figure below.  Revisions to the unemployment rates were minor and left the trends intact.  Rates have changed little over the past year, with Jonesboro and Memphis edging slightly lower and Pine Bluff and Texarkana experiencing modest increases.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

The revisions to the household employment levels are of interest, if for no other reason than they reinforce the revisions to payroll employment that were released in March.  Total employment was revised upward in Fort Smith, Hot Springs, and Pine Bluff.  Other metro areas saw modest downward revisions.  Overall the data for a indicate rising employment trends for the first months of 2019, with the exception of Pine Bluff where household employment is showing little change.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Payroll Employment
Changes in nonfarm payroll employment were mixed across the state’s metro areas.  From February to March, statewide employment was essentially unchanged.  Meanwhile, three metros experienced employment increases of 0.3% and three saw declines of 0.3%.  Hot Springs and Little Rock were essentially unchanged.  Compared to a year ago, employment is higher in six metro areas, unchanged in Pine Bluff and down slightly in Fort Smith.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

With the data smoothed by using quarterly averages, the figure below provides a summary of the employment growth trends among Arkansas’ metro areas.  Since the beginning of 2014, employment has been increasing in nearly all of the metropolitan regions of the state.  The exception is Pine Bluff, where payroll employment continues to stagnate or decline slightly.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

 

 

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Arkansas GDP – 2018:Q4

By , May 1, 2019 12:14 PM

The latest report on state GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis shows Arkansas growth rate in the fourth quarter was 1.5% (seasonally adjusted annual rate), well below the U.S. growth rate of 2.2%.  Benefiting from strong growth in oil and gas production, the fastest growing state was Texas at 6.6%.  Arkansas ranked as the 34th highest growth rate among the 50 states.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

The fourth-quarter total for Arkansas was up 1.2% from a year earlier, compared to a year-over-year growth rate of 3.0% for the U.S.  Over the most recent five years, Arkansas GDP growth has averaged 0.9% while the U.S. growth rate has averaged 2.4%.

Source:  Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

As is often the case, data revisions that came out with today’s report (for 2015 through 2018:Q3) are important for putting the most recent data into context.  For Arkansas, these revisions raised estimates of GDP growth in late 2016 and early 2017, but lowered growth estimates for more recent quarters.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Specifically, the revisions increased growth in the fourth quarter of 2016 from 3.3% to 4.3%, changed the first quarter of 2017 from negative to essentially zero, and raised the second quarter estimate as well (from 1.5% to 2.1%).  From 2017:Q4 forward, however, estimates of Arkansas GDP growth were all lowered.  A notable revision for 2018:Q2 reduced the state’s growth rate from 4.4% down to 1.7%.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

The table below shows a breakdown of contributions to growth by sector.  The largest single contributor to Arkansas’ growth rate in the fourth quarter was wholesale trade, but durable goods manufacturing had a strong showing as well.  Both are relatively large, important sectors in the Arkansas economy.  Other growing sectors included Real Estate; Management of companies and enterprises; and Health care and social assistance.  Oil and gas production also gave the Arkansas economy a boost, but that sector is not as large a contributor to our state’s economy as it is to other states in the region.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

One notable declining sector was Agriculture, which was down 8.7% from the previous quarter.  The contrast between this downturn in production and the surge in farm income that we saw in the fourth-quarter personal income report would seem to indicate that the income surge in agriculture was largely attributable to payments made to farmers as part of the USDA’s Market Facilitation Program, which is intended to assist farmers affected by tariffs and reduced exports.  Payments under this program began in the fourth quarter.  The USDA has recently noted that the program has paid out more than $8.3 billion to nearly 600,000 applicants.  Payments to soybean farmers have comprised a large share of the payouts, and should continue to boost farm incomes in the income data for the first quarter of 2019.

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Arkansas Employment and Unemployment – March 2019

By , April 19, 2019 12:27 PM

The news from the latest report on state-level employment and unemployment was mixed.  The household survey showed sizable employment gains and a downtick in the unemployment rate, while the payroll survey indicated stagnant job growth for the month.

The unemployment rate was reported as returning to its January level of 3.7%, down from 3.8% in February.  It is probably more accurate to say that the unemployment rate has been unchanged at about 3-3/4% since the start of the year;  the recent changes in the reported rate have been nothing more than rounding error.

The number of unemployed was down slightly (-469) after having steadily increased since August of 2018.  The number of employed Arkansans rose substantially (+2,079) in March, adding to gains recorded in recent months.  The total labor force continued to increase as well (+1,610).  Over the past year, the household survey shows employment up by 8,585 and the number of unemployed down slightly (-143).

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Payroll Employment
Nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged in March, registering an insignificantly small loss (-300) for the month (seasonally adjusted data) .  The employment total for February was also revised down slightly (-600).  Over the past twelve months,  payroll employment has increased by 11,700 jobs.

The March statistics showed increases in Construction (+1,100), Leisure & Hospitality Services (+600) and Education & Health Services (+300).  Manufacturing and Wholesale Trade each declined by 700 jobs and the Professional & Business Services sector was down by 400 jobs.  Although manufacturing employment declined from the previous month, it has increased by 4,200 over the past year, accounting for over one-third of the state’s job growth since March 2018.

The employment table, below, features a slightly modified format.  Rather than looking at the net employment change since the post-recession trough of February 2010, the third column of the table now reports growth since the current period of sustained job growth began:  around December 2013. From that baseline, the only sectors that have shown employment declines are Mining & Logging, and Information Services.  Education & Health Services have added the most jobs during this period of employment growth (+21,400).  Other service-providing sectors have also contributed significantly to total job growth.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

The revised column three of the table also shows that the resurgence of Manufacturing employment has been a notable feature of the prevailing trend in job growth, not just over the past year.  During the period after the “great recession” of 2008-09, manufacturing employment languished for some time and experienced a second significant downturn during the local mini-recession of 2012.  The more recent trend of rising employment growth in the manufacturing sector is an encouraging sign of balanced growth across the state’s key sectors and industries.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

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 *Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format compatible with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services, can be found here:  Table-Seasonally Adjusted NFPE.

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Metro Area Employment and Unemployment – February 2019

By , April 3, 2019 1:58 PM

Revised data on metro area unemployment rates in 2018 will not be complete until April 19, but today the Bureau of Labor Statistics released current unemployment statistics for February 2019.  Seasonally adjusted estimates for January and February show metro area unemployment rates mostly unchanged.  In contrast to a up-tick of 0.1 percentage point statewide, unemployment rates ticked down in Hot Springs, Memphis and Texarkana.  The metro areas in the state’s northern tier continue to run below the statewide average of 3.8%, with Fayetteville at 2.8% and Jonesboro at 3.1%.  Unemployment rates in Pine Bluff and Texarkana remain above 5%.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Compared to February 2018, the latest estimates show mixed changes over the past year.  Unemployment rates have declined slightly in Fort Smith, Hot Springs, Jonesboro and Memphis.  On the other hand, unemployment increased by 0.4% in both Pine Bluff and Texarkana.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Payroll Employment
Nonfarm payroll employment was higher than a month earlier in five of eight metro areas in Arkansas, but was down in Pine Bluff, Hot Springs and Memphis.  Compared to a year earlier, employment increased by 1.0% or more in all but two of Arkansas metros.  Pine Bluff was down 0.9% while Fort Smith was essentially unchanged.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

 

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Arkansas Personal Income – 2018:Q4

By , March 26, 2019 3:35 PM

Arkansas total personal income surged at an annual rate of 7.5% in the fourth quarter of 2018, outpacing the U.S. growth rate of 5.2% and ranking as the 5th fastest-growing state in the nation.  The sharp increase was largely attributable to spike in farm income, which increased at an annual rate of 385%.  The increase in farm income was not unique to Arkansas:  The only states to outpace Arkansas’ growth rate in the fourth quarter were the agricultural states of  South Dakota, Iowa, Nebraska and North Dakota.  Even without the volatile farm income component, however, Arkansas personal income increased at a rate of 4.7% — essentially the same rate as the U.S. total.

spi0319c

Today’s report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis also included revised quarterly estimates for 2018:Q1-2018:Q3.  As shown in the figure below, Arkansas growth was revised higher in each of the first three quarters of the year.  The cumulative impact was to increase year-over-year growth by about one-quarter of a percentage point.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Total earnings contributed 5.27 percentage points to the Arkansas personal income growth rate in the fourth quarter.  As shown in the table below, about half of that growth contribution was attributable to the farming sector.  Other notable contributors included Health care and social assistance, Management of companies and enterprises, and Durable goods manufacturing.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

The fourth-quarter surge in personal income translated to an uptick in per capita income, which reached $43,312.   This figure represents 79.5% of average per capita personal income for the U.S.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

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Arkansas Employment and Unemployment – February 2019

By , March 25, 2019 10:48 AM

The latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the Arkansas unemployment rate ticking up from 3.7% to 3.8%, but both the household survey and payroll survey indicated solid employment growth.

The uptick in the unemployment rate was attributable to an increase in the number of unemployed in both January and February, up by 1,500 over the two-month period.  Meanwhile, the number of employed has increased by more than 3,200 over the same period.  The employment gains and the consequent expansion of the labor force suggest that the higher number of unemployed might be attributable to improving labor market conditions as more potential workers are drawn into the market—or it might just be a data anomaly.  Indeed, the recent updates to the household employment data showed that estimates of the number of unemployed are subject to large percentage revisions.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Payroll Employment
Nonfarm payroll employment statistics showed a net gain of 1,800 jobs in February, with the estimate for January revised up by another 800 jobs.  From January to February, Manufacturing alone accounted for more than the month’s total net job gains.  Retail Trade and Other Services also showed increases.  Declining sectors included Construction and Education & Health Services.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Manufacturing is also a standout sector in terms of job creation over the past year–particularly nondurables manufacturing.   Total nonfarm payrolls are up 13.5% since February 2017, with nearly 40% of that increase attributable to manufacturing jobs.  In percentage growth terms, manufacturing increased by 3.3%, compared to 1.1% growth in total nonfarm payroll employment.  As illustrated in the figure below, much of the recent growth has been in durable-goods manufacturing.  Employment in nondurables has been increasing since 2014, but the recovery of employment in durable-goods production is more recent.  Over the past six months, in fact, employment in durables manufacturing has expanded at an annualized rate of 11.3%.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

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 *Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format compatible with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services, can be found here:  Table-Seasonally Adjusted NFPE.

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Metro Area Employment and Unemployment – January 2019

By , March 15, 2019 12:15 PM

The latest report on unemployment rates in metropolitan areas includes partially revised estimates.  Data were revised back to 2014, but the full set of revised figures will not be available until April 19th.  Meanwhile, the figure below illustrates the effect of the revisions on estimates of unemployment rates for December 2018.  Rates were unchanged for Fayetteville, Little Rock, Memphis and Texarkana, while other metro areas saw slight downward revisions.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics

Preliminary data for January show that rates were generally little changed from the previous year, with the exception of Pine Bluff and Texarkana which both saw increases of 0.7 percentage points over the course of 2018.  Relative rankings of unemployment rates among metro areas has been holding steady with Fayetteville, Jonesboro and Little Rock registering rates below the statewide average and with Pine Bluff and Texarkana significantly above the statewide average.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Payroll Employment
Data on nonfarm payroll employment for metro areas was also revised this week, with some of the revisions substantial.  As detailed in the table and figure below, employment levels were revised downward for the fastest-growing metro areas in the state:  Fayetteville, Jonesboro, Little Rock, and Memphis.  Employment in Texarkana was also adjusted lower.  In each of these cases employment growth over the past two years was also revised downward.  Meanwhile the levels and growth rates of employment were revised higher for Fort Smith, Hot Springs and Pine Bluff.  For Pine Bluff, the revisions changed the two year growth from negative to positive.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

New data for January 2019 showed mixed changes for the month-to-month data, with employment declines in Fayetteville, Little Rock and Pine Bluff.  Employment was higher in Fort Smith, Memphis and Texarkana.  Incorporating the new revisions, all of Arkansas’ metro areas except for Fort Smith show positive employment growth over the most recent twelve months.  Given the substantial revision to data for 2018, Hot Springs now joins the ranks of metro areas that have higher employment today than before the onset of the “Great Recession” in 2008.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

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