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FHFA House Prices – 2015:Q4

By , February 25, 2016 4:08 PM

New data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) show continuing appreciation of Arkansas house prices.  As illustrated in the figure below, the FHFA Expanded-Data Index for Arkansas increased in each quarter of 2015.  In the fourth quarter, the index was up 1.1% from the previous quarter, and 3.2% higher than the previous year.  The index for the U.S. — recovering from a significantly sharper decline of 2007-2011 — was up 1.3% for the quarter and 5.6% for the year.

Source:  Federal Housing Finance Agency

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency

The expanded data indexes are only available at the state level, but the FHFA publishes All-Transactions indexes that cover metropolitan areas as well.  The table below summarizes recent house-price changes in Arkansas’ eight metro areas.  In the fourth quarter, prices were down in Little Rock, Pine Bluff and Texarkana.  For the year, prices were down only slightly in Texarkana, but were higher in all other metro areas (as well as the non-metropolitan portions of the state).

Source:  Federal Housing Finance Agency; Seasonal Adjustment by the Institute for Economic Advancement.

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency; Seasonal Adjustment by the Institute for Economic Advancement.

House prices in Northwest Arkansas have shown the most rapid appreciation over the past five years, but are recovering from the largest house-price declines in state during the 2007-2011 period.  In fact, the figure below illustrates that most of the state’s metro and non-metro areas suffered only modest declines during the nationwide housing price collapse, and all have shown at least modest appreciation over the most recent two- to five-year period.

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency; Seasonal Adjustment by the Institute for Economic Advancement.

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency; Seasonal Adjustment by the Institute for Economic Advancement.

FHFA House Prices – 2013:Q2

By , August 22, 2013 12:46 PM

New data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) showed that home prices continue to rise, although the rate of increase in Arkansas remains below the national average.   Among the various indexes published by the FHFA, the most informative is the “Expanded-Data Index,” which incorporates data from FannieMae, FreddieMac, FHFA as well as county records.  By this measure, Arkansas house prices in the second quarter were unchanged from the previous quarter, but were up 2.7% from a year ago.  Nationwide, the Expanded-Data Index showed prices up 2.4% from the previous quarter and up 7.5% from 2012:Q2.  As shown in the chart below, it is not surprising that Arkansas house price appreciation is slower than the national average:  During the nationwide home price crash, declines in Arkansas were far smaller than for the U.S. as a whole.  Compared to the peak of home prices in early 2007, prices in Arkansas are down 5.6% while the nationwide average is down 17.6%.

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency

Data for Arkansas’ metro areas showed that the upward momentum in house prices is widespread.  According the FHFA “All-Transactions Indexes” (which include sales and refinancings), prices were flat in the Little Rock metro area but were up in all other parts of the state.  Over the past year, the largest price increases have been in the Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers MSA — which had also experienced the largest decline from 2007-2010.  Prices have also been rising at a brisk pace in Texarkana, Hot Springs, and Jonesboro.  Over the past 5 years, prices have increased in Jonesboro and Texarkana, and have held steady in Fort Smith.

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency; Seasonal adjustment by the Institute for Economic Advancement

The MSA house price data are broadly consistent with the CoreLogic® data that we discussed in a recent post.  Specifically, the CoreLogic data suggested that price increases in Fayetteville and Texarkana were particularly robust after excluding “distressed sales.”  The FHFA data are based on mortgages that are processed through FannyMae and FreddieMac, and are likely to under-sample distressed sales. The CoreLogic data also suggested that recent house price appreciation has been relatively slow in Fort Smith and Hot Springs.

The chart below illustrated the longer-run perspective, comparing FHFA house prices indexes for Arkansas’ MSAs from a common starting point:  2007:Q1.  Over that 6-1/2 year time span, prices have increased in all of the state’s metro areas except for Hot Springs, Memphis, and Fayetteville.  Prices in Northwest Arkansas suffered the state’s largest declines during the house price collapse — down almost 20% in early 2011.  But since that low-point, prices in the Fayetteville MSA have been showing significant recovery.  In Texarkana, the net change in house prices since 2007:Q1 has been an increase of over 10%.

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency; Seasonal adjustment by the Institute for Economic Advancement

 

New FHFA House Price Data – A Mixed Bag

By , August 23, 2012 3:08 PM

This morning, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) released house price data for the second quarter of 2012.  For Arkansas, the report was a mixed bag of results.  The seasonally-adjusted “Purchase-Only Index” (which uses only sales price data) showed Arkansas house prices up 1.9% for the quarter and up 7.2% from a year earlier.  In comparison, data for the U.S. showed prices up 1.8% for the quarter and up 3.0% from the previous year.  On the other hand, the FHFA’s “All-Transactions Index” (which includes appraisal data from refinancings) showed prices declining.  House prices were down 1.5% in Arkansas, and down 0.7% nationwide.

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency

The purchase-only index has the advantage of measuring only market transactions — where true value is revealed.  The all-transactions index has broader coverage and incorporates more individual data observations.  But neither is a perfect measure.  One conclusion on which both methodologies agree:  The house-price crash that has plagued the market since 2006 has not been nearly as severe in Arkansas as in the rest of the nation.

One drawback of both measures is the limited nature of the underlying data, which are restricted to mortgages financed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.  Missing in this sample are transactions for homes financed with nonconforming mortgages, including “jumbo” loans.  In an attempt to broaden coverage, the FHFA introduced a third measure last year, the “Expanded-Data” indexes, which incorporate additional data from the FHA and from county recorder offices.  The Expanded-Data indexes help to bring the FHFA measures into closer correponsdence with the famous Case-Shiller house price index.

As shown in the chart below, the expanded data indexes show larger peak-to-trough declines than either the all-transactions or purchase-only measures, but tend to validate the view that we are past the trough with prices beginning to recover.  For the second quarter, the expanded-data series show Arkansas prices up 2.4% and U.S. prices up 2.0%.  On a year-over-year basis, the Expanded-Data series show prices up 7.8% in Arkansas and up 2.4% for the U.S.

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency

Metro Area House Price Data:
Metro area data are available only for the All-Transactions measure.  Consistent with the statewide reading for the second quarter, house prices as measured by this methodology were down across the state.  Price declines ranged from -0.4% in Little Rock and Fort Smith to -5.4% in Hot Springs.  Relative to the second quarter of 2011, however, house prices were measured as being higher in three metro areas — Fayetteville, Jonesboro and Little Rock.  The longer-run record of house prices shows considerable diversity among the states metro areas.  Compared to the second quarter of 2007, price changes range from +6.2% in Texarkana to -18.6% in Fayetteville.

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency

FHFA House Prices

By , March 4, 2011 3:01 PM

Recently released data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) shows that house prices in the U.S. continued to decline during 2010, with average house prices down 1.3 percent nationwide.  Here in Arkansas, the decline was somewhat larger — down 2.2 percent.

As shown in the table below, the average price decline for Arkansas is skewed by price changes in the northwest part of the state.  House prices in the Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers metro area were down 4.1 percent and in Fort Smith prices were down 3.6%.   In the state’s other metro areas, price declines were smaller than the national average.  In Texarkana, house prices were up slightly.

Source:  Federal Housing Finance Agency

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency

This is the third year of statewide house price declines.   The FHFA housing price index for Arkansas peaked in the first quarter of 2008.   However, the pattern of price changes has differed from one metro area to another.  From 2000 until the peak, house prices in the Fayetteville area had risen by 51 percent.  Over the past 5 years, however, prices in that region are down nearly 10%.  Prices in Hot Springs continued to rise well after the peak was reached in other markets, but have fallen sharply in the past two years.  In the state’s other metro areas price gains in the first part of the decade were more modest — and recent price declines have been commensurately smaller.  Over the past five years, cumulative price changes have been positive in all the state’s metro areas except Fayetteville.

Arkansas Home Prices – 2018:Q2

By , August 24, 2018 4:28 PM

The latest home price data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) shows Arkansas home prices continuing to rise in most parts of the state, albeit at a somewhat slower pace than the national average.  According to the FHFA’s “Expanded Data Indexes*,” Arkansas house prices rose 0.9% in the first quarter and were 5.0% higher than a year earlier.  The U.S. average rose 1.3% for the quarter and was up 7.0% compared to 2017:Q2.

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency

The downturn in house prices from 2007 til 2011 was far less severe in Arkansas than in other parts of the nation, and those markets that declined the most during the downturn have been experiencing the most rapid growth since.  From 2011:Q2 through 2018:Q2, Arkansas house prices increased 25.6% compared to the national average of 47.5%.

The pattern of larger declines in 2007-11 being associated with more rapid price growth since 2011 is apparent in the data for Arkansas’ metro regions.  Memphis and Northwest Arkansas suffered the largest declines during the crash and have both recovered sharply since then. On the other hand, Texarkana and Jonesboro experienced little if any price decline during the downturn, and have seen modest rates of price increase since then.   The experiences of other metro areas in the state lie between these two extremes.

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Seasonal Adjustment by the Arkansas Economic Development Institute

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Seasonal Adjustment by the Arkansas Economic Development Institute

Using the FHFA’s “All-Transaction Indexes*,” house price growth over the past 5 years has exceeded 25% in both Fayetteville and Memphis.  Gains in other areas have been less substantial.  Nevertheless, the price changes from before the crash until 2018 are positive across the state, ranging from +6.0% in Pine Bluff to +20.2% in Texarkana.

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Seasonal Adjustment by the Arkansas Economic Development Institute

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Seasonal Adjustment by the Arkansas Economic Development Institute

# # #

* The FHFA produces several house price indexes with different coverage.  The basic Purchase-Only Index includes prices from home sales that were financed through the federal enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.  The All-Transactions Index also incorporates appraisals associated with refinancing.  Finally, the Expanded Index incorporates information from county recorders’ offices, capturing home sales that were not financed through the government housing enterprises.  More information is available at: https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/Pages/House-Price-Index.aspx

Arkansas House Prices – 2017:Q2

By , August 23, 2017 4:41 PM

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has published new statistics on house prices across the nation.  The data for Arkansas continue to show an upward trend in prices, but with slower rate of appreciation than the nationwide average.  The most comprehensive of the FHFA indexes, Expanded Data Indexes†, show that house prices in Arkansas rose 1.2% in the second quarter of 2017, compared to an increase of 1.7% for the U.S.   Year-over-year growth rates were 4.2% for Arkansas and 6.7% for the U.S.

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency

Increases in Arkansas house prices have been consistently lower than the nationwide average throughout the post 2011 housing recovery.  In part, this is simply a function of having experienced a less severe downturn during the 2007-11 housing price collapse.  Compared to the beginning of 2007, the net increase in housing prices in Arkansas has been 3.9% while the comparable figure for the U.S. average is 2.8%.

The Expanded Data indexes are not calculated for metropolitan areas, but the FHFA does publish figures for its All-Transactions Indexes†.  By this measure, house prices increased in the second quarter throughout much of the state, with quarterly declines registered for Fort Smith and Pine Bluff.  Prices in Jonesboro were essentially unchanged.  Over the past year, prices have risen in all metro areas except Pine Bluff, which has seen a decline of 7.9%.

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency; Seasonal adjustment by the Arkansas Economic Development Institute.

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. Seasonal adjustment by the Arkansas Economic Development Institute.

Over a longer span of time, it is clear that Fayetteville and Memphis are seeing the most rapid rates of appreciation.  As illustrated in the figure below, these were also the metro areas that suffered the largest price declines during the period of falling prices.  Meanwhile, house prices in Texarkana and Jonesboro have not increased as rapidly in recent years, but were largely unaffected by the housing price collapse.  Compared to 10 years ago, the metro area with the greatest house-price appreciation has been Texarkana, with Jonesboro also registering above-average increases.

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. Seasonal adjustment by the Arkansas Economic Development Institute.

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency. Seasonal adjustment by the Arkansas Economic Development Institute.

# # #

†The FHFA produces several house price indexes with different coverage.  The basic Purchase-Only Index includes prices from home sales that were financed through the federal enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.  The All-Transactions Index also incorporates appraisals associated with refinancing.  Finally, the Expanded Index incorporates information from county recorders’ offices, capturing home sales that were not financed through the government housing enterprises.

Arkansas House Prices – 2017:Q2

By , May 24, 2017 5:40 PM

Arkansas house prices continue to trend upward, but at a slower pace than the national average.  According to the latest Expanded Data indexes from the Federal Housing Finance agency, Arkansas house prices rose 1.2% in the first quarter of 2017.  Over the most recent four quarters, Arkansas house prices were up 4.2%.  Over the same period, the national average for house prices increase by 6.7%

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)

The comparatively rapid pace of house prices nationwide reflects a rebound effects in the areas where prices declined the most during the market crash of 2007-11.  As shown in the following figure, that pattern holds true for the metro areas that cover parts of Arkansas.  House prices declined by over 12% in Memphis and by nearly 20% in Fayetteville from 2007 to 2011.  Those two metro areas have also seen the most rapid home-price appreciation since 2012.  Having experienced little depreciation during the period of housing price declines, Jonesboro and Texarkana have seen the highest rates of cumulative price increase since 2007.

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA).  Seasonal Adjustment by the Institute for Economic Advanacement

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). Seasonal Adjustment by the Institute for Economic Advancement

In the most recent quarter, house prices were up in all of Arkansas’ metro areas except Little Rock, where prices are reported to have fallen by 1.0%.  Prices were down over the quarter in non-metropolitan regions of he state.  Over the past year, prices have risen most rapidly in Fort Smith and Fayetteville, and have risen most slowly in Pine Bluff and Little Rock.

Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). Seasonal Adjustment by the Institute for Economic Advancement

Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). Seasonal Adjustment by the Institute for Economic Advancement

Arkansas House Prices – 2016:Q2

By , August 30, 2016 12:12 PM

The most recent data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) show that house prices in Arkansas continue to rise, albeit not as rapidly as the nationwide average. According to the FHFA’s Expanded-Data Indexes, house prices edged only slightly higher in the second quarter of 2016 (+0.02%) but are up by 3.3% compared to a year earlier.  The data for the U.S. showed a quarterly increase of 1.3%, with a cumulative increase of 3.8% from 2015:Q2.  Since house prices bottomed-out in 2011:Q2, prices in Arkansas have risen 16.1%, compared to a 30.3% increase nationwide.  House prices in Arkansas are now slightly higher than before the housing-market crash of early 2007, but remain more than 3% below that baseline for the U.S.

Source:  Federal Housing Finance Agency

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency

Using the slightly less comprehensive All-Transactions Indexes we can see that house prices rose in most areas of the state during the second quarter, with the exception being Hot Springs, where prices declined by 1.2%.  The largest quarterly increase was in Texarkana, where house prices were up by 5.5%.

Source:  Federal Housing Finance Agency, Seasonally Adjusted by the Arkansas Institute for Economic Advancement.

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Seasonally Adjusted by the Arkansas Institute for Economic Advancement.

Since prices began rising five years ago, the markets that saw the largest declines between 2007:Q1 and 2011:Q2 have shown substantial recoveries:  In particular, the 5-year price increase in Northwest Arkansas has been 19.8%.  Nevertheless, house prices remain below their 2007 peaks in in Northwest Arkansas, as well as in Memphis and Hot Springs.  After the large increase in 2016:Q2, house prices in Texarkana are now more than 20% higher than the nationwide house-price collapse.  Note, however, that prices in Texarkana showed no significant decline in the post-2007 downturn.

Source:  Federal Housing Finance Agency, Seasonally Adjusted by the Arkansas Institute for Economic Advancement.

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Seasonally Adjusted by the Arkansas Institute for Economic Advancement.

Given the vigorous demand for housing that is evident in home sales data, continued upward pressure on house prices is expected to continue.

Arkansas House Prices – 2016:Q1

By , May 25, 2016 4:40 PM

New data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) show that, overall, house prices in Arkansas continue to rise, albeit more slowly than the national average.  According to the FHFA Expanded Data Indexes*, Arkansas house prices rose by 0.8% in the first quarter, compared to a 1.5% increase nationwide.  Since the first quarter of 2015, Arkansas prices were up 4.15 while prices for the total U.S. were up 5.5%.  As shown in the figure below, the most recent price increase in Arkansas lifts the expanded-data index above the level of it’s pre-recession peak.

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)

The expanded-data indexes are not available for metropolitan areas, but the FHFA does publish “All-Transactions Indexes*” for metro areas.  The table below shows that by this measure, prices in Arkansas were down slightly in the first quarter, and declined in Fort Smith, Hot Springs, Texarkana, and the non-metropolitan areas of the state as well.  Over the past four quarters, however, prices are up in every metro area except Fort Smith.

Source:  Federal Housing Finance Agency, Seasonally Adjusted by the Institute for Economic Advancement.

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Seasonally Adjusted by the Institute for Economic Advancement.

As shown in the accompanying figure, the metro areas that have experienced the largest price increases over the past five years are generally those that experienced the largest price-declines during the 2007-2011 housing market collapse.  That pattern is generally true for other parts of the nation as well.

Source:  Federal Housing Finance Agency, Seasonally Adjusted by the Institute for Economic Advancement.

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Seasonally Adjusted by the Institute for Economic Advancement.

# # #

* The “All-Transactions Indexes” are constructed using all home sales and refinancing information collected by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.  The “Expanded Data Indexes” enhance this information with information collected from county recorders’ offices.

Arkansas House Prices – 2015:Q2

By , September 4, 2015 11:09 AM

Recently-released data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) show that Arkansas house prices continued an upward trend during the second quarter of 2015.  Statewide, the FHFA “expanded data” index increased by 1.0% from the first quarter, and was up 2.9% from a year earlier (seasonally adjusted).  By comparison, the national index was up 1.5% quarter-to-quarter, and up 6.2% year-over-year.

Source:   Federal Housing Finance Agency

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency

Around the state, metro-area house prices (as measured by all-transactions indexes) were generally up — with the notable exception of Fort Smith.  Volatility in the Fort Smith index masks a longer-term stability, with prices basically flat compared to five years ago.  Among other metro areas, year-over-year increases ranged from 1.7% in Little Rock to 4.9% in Jonesboro.

Source:  Federal Housing Finance Agency

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency

Over the past five years, the metro areas with the most rapid rates of appreciation were Fayetteville and Jonesboro, both up 8.5%.  Since reaching a low point in 2011:Q2, house prices in Fayetteville have increased by 14.3%, recovering over half of the losses experienced from the beginning of 2007 through 2011:Q2.  As shown in the chart below, house price changes have varied considerably around the state since the housing market boom peaked around the beginning of 2007.  Prices remain 5% to 10% lower in Fayetteville and Memphis, but are up 10% to 15% in Jonesboro and Texarkana.  As measured by the all-transactions index, the statewide average of house prices is up slightly from 2007 (+0.5%).

Source:  Federal Housing Finance Agency

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency

 

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