Institute for Economic Advancement

Posts tagged: Arkansas Taxable Sales

Arkansas Taxable Sales – 2017:Q1

By , May 10, 2017 4:14 PM

Arkansas Taxable Sales (ATS) rose 0.1% in the first quarter of 2017 — up 2.1% from a year earlier.  From the end of the recession in 2009:Q2 through the first quarter of 2017, ATS has expanded at an annual rate of 2.9%.

Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

Gasoline prices averaged $2.11 during the first quarter, up from $2.00 in the fourth quarter of 2016.  As a result, expenditures on gasoline were up 8.0% in the first quarter and were 27.7% higher than in the first quarter of 2016.  Incorporating this source of increased spending, Arkansas Taxable Sales Including Gasoline (ATSIG) increased by 0.5% in the first quarter of 2017, and were 3.3% higher than a year earlier.

Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

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Arkansas Taxable Sales (ATS) is calculated by the Institute for Economic Advancement to serve as a timely proxy for Arkansas retail sales. The series is derived from sales and use tax data, adjusting for the relative timing of tax collections and underlying sales, changes in tax laws, and seasonal patterns in the data.  Arkansas Taxable Sales Including Gasoline (ATSIG) incorporates data on the state motor fuel tax and gasoline prices from the Oil Price Information Service. A spreadsheet of the monthly and quarterly data is available here: Arkansas Taxable Sales 2016:Q4 (Excel file).

Arkansas Taxable Sales – 2016

By , February 13, 2017 4:25 PM

Arkansas Taxable Sales (ATS) increased 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2016 (seasonally adjusted), and were up 1.8% from a year earlier.

With gasoline prices little changed, an increase in gallons sold pushed gasoline expenditures up 9.9% for the quarter.  As a result, Arkansas Taxable Sales Including Gasoline (ATSIG) rose 0.9%.  Compared to the fourth quarter of 2015, ATSIG was up 2.2%.

Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

Both ATS and ATSIG had declined over the first half of 2016, but recovered lost ground in the third and fourth quarters.  On average, 2016 was a year of slowing growth in taxable sales.  Not including gasoline, Arkansas Taxable Sales were up 1.5% for the year.  With gasoline prices down from $2.18 in 2015 to $1.91 in 2016, expenditures on gasoline were down 8.2%.  Consequently, ATSIG rose only 1.0% for the year.

Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

# # #

Arkansas Taxable Sales (ATS) is calculated by the Institute for Economic Advancement to serve as a timely proxy for Arkansas retail sales. The series is derived from sales and use tax data, adjusting for the relative timing of tax collections and underlying sales, changes in tax laws, and seasonal patterns in the data.  Arkansas Taxable Sales Including Gasoline (ATSIG) incorporates data on the state motor fuel tax and gasoline prices from the Oil Price Information Service. A spreadsheet of the monthly and quarterly data is available here: Arkansas Taxable Sales 2016:Q4 (Excel file).

Arkansas Taxable Sales – 2016:Q3

By , November 22, 2016 11:13 AM

After declining during the first half of the year, Arkansas Taxable Sales (ATS) rose 2.2% in the third quarter of 2016.  On a year-over-year basis, taxable sales were up 1.3% from the third quarter of 2015.  Gasoline sales also rose in the third quarter (+1.6%), despite a slight reduction in the average price of gasoline in Arkansas.  As a result, Arkansas Taxable Sales Including Gasoline (ATSIG) also rose by 2.2% from the second quarter to the third.  Over the past four quarters, ATSIG has increased by 0.6% while gasoline prices have fallen from $2.28/gallon in 2015:Q3 to $1.985 in the most recent quarter.

Sources:  Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

From the trough of the recession (2009:Q2) through the third quarter of 2016, ATS has grown at an average rate of 3.0%.  With gasoline expenditures falling at a 2.1% annual rate over the same period, ATSIG has increased at a 2.8% rate.  As measured by the price index for personal consumption expenditures, inflation has averaged 1.5% over the 7-year expansion, so that real (inflation adjusted) measures of ATS and ATSIG have grown at rates of 1.5% and 1.3%, respectively.

As shown in the final figure below, gasoline prices are at about the same level as at the trough of the recession–around $2/gallon.  However, spending on gasoline as a percent of total taxable sales has fallen to less than 5%, down from around 6% in 2009.  Although expenditures on gasoline have increased over the past 7 years, lower gas prices have allowed for spending on non-fuel items to increase as a share of total expenditures.

Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

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Arkansas Taxable Sales (ATS) is calculated by the Institute for Economic Advancement to serve as a timely proxy for Arkansas retail sales. The series is derived from sales and use tax data, adjusting for the relative timing of tax collections and underlying sales, changes in tax laws, and seasonal patterns in the data.  Arkansas Taxable Sales Including Gasoline (ATSIG) incorporates data on the state motor fuel tax and gasoline prices from the Oil Price Information Service. A spreadsheet of the monthly and quarterly data is available here: Arkansas Taxable Sales 2016:Q1 (Excel file).

Arkansas Taxable Sales – 2016:Q1

By , July 20, 2016 4:22 PM

Arkansas Taxable Sales Including Gasoline (ATSIG) declined by 1.0% from 2015:Q4 to 2016:Q1, following a decline of 0.5% in the previous quarter.  Compared to a year earlier, ATSIG increased by only 1.0%.  Much of the weakness in the growth rate of ATSIG is attributable to low gasoline prices.  The average price of gasoline in Arkansas in the first quarter was $1.66, down from $1.94.  As a result, spending on gasoline declined by 12.1% (seasonally adjusted).

Not all the slow growth in sales can be attributed to low gas prices, however.  Excluding gasoline, Arkansas Taxable Sales (ATS) declined by 0.5% in the first quarter, following a nearly flat fourth quarter.  From 2015:Q1 to 2016:Q1, ATS rose by only 1.8%.  After adjusting for inflation (as measured by the price index for personal consumption expenditures), real ATS was up only 0.8% over the four-quarter period.

Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement.

Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement.

Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement.

Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement.

Given the state’s low unemployment and relatively healthy income growth, it is surprising that the growth rate of Arkansas Taxable Sales has been so sluggish.  Since the trough of the “great recession” in 2009:Q2, ATS has increased at an annual rate of only 3.0%.  Over the same period, U.S. Retail Sales have been growing at a 4.4% pace.  Although the national figures are not completely comparable to ATS, the discrepancy between the growth rates of consumer spending on the national and state levels is notable.  The growing share of internet shopping (which is included in U.S. Retail Sales but not necessarily in ATS) might account for a portion of the discrepancy, but is unlikely explain the difference completely.

Sources:  Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, U.S. Census Bureau, Institute for Economic Advancement.

Sources: Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, U.S. Census Bureau, Institute for Economic Advancement.

# # #

Arkansas Taxable Sales (ATS) is calculated by the Institute for Economic Advancement to serve as a timely proxy for Arkansas retail sales. The series is derived from sales and use tax data, adjusting for the relative timing of tax collections and underlying sales, changes in tax laws, and seasonal patterns in the data.  Arkansas Taxable Sales Including Gasoline (ATSIG) incorporates data on the state motor fuel tax and gasoline prices from the Oil Price Information Service. A spreadsheet of the monthly and quarterly data is available here: Arkansas Taxable Sales 2016:Q1 (Excel file).

Arkansas Taxable Sales – 2015:Q1

By , June 1, 2015 12:39 PM

In the first quarter of 2015, Arkansas Taxable Sales Including Gasoline (ATSIG) declined by 1.2%.  Compared to the first quarter of 2014, ATSIG was up by only 0.6%.  However, much of the decline in overall consumer spending can be attributed to low gasoline prices.  Based on data from the Oil Price Information Service, the average price of a gallon of gasoline in Arkansas during the first quarter of the year was only $2.10, down 21.6% from the previous quarter and down 33.9% from a year earlier.  Moreover, the number of gallons of gasoline purchased dropped as well:  13.8% lower than a year earlier.  Total expenditures on gasoline were down 31.2% for the quarter (seasonally adjusted) and were down 38.7% from the year before.

With a smaller share of household budgets going toward purchases of gasoline, the non-gasoline component of Arkansas Taxable Sales (ATS) surged higher — up by 1.0% from the previous quarter and up 3.9% from the previous year.  The non-gasoline measure of taxable sales — based on sales tax collection data from the Arkansas Department of Finance and Administration — has increased by 20.4% since the trough of the recession (2009:Q2), reflecting an average annual growth rate of 3.3%.

Sources:  Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement.

Sources: Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement.

Sources:  Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement.

Sources: Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement.

# # #

Arkansas Taxable Sales (ATS) is calculated by the Institute for Economic Advancement to serve as a timely proxy for Arkansas retail sales. The series is derived from sales and use tax data, adjusting for the relative timing of tax collections and underlying sales, changes in tax laws, and seasonal patterns in the data.  Arkansas Taxable Sales Including Gasoline (ATSIG) incorporates data on the state motor fuel tax and gasoline prices from the Oil Price Information Service. A spreadsheet of the monthly and quarterly data is available here: Arkansas Taxable Sales 2015:Q1 (Excel file).

Arkansas Taxable Sales – 2014:Q4

By , March 30, 2015 2:07 PM

With consumer purchasing power boosted by low gasoline prices, Arkansas Taxable Sales (ATS) surged in the fourth quarter of 2014, increasing by 2.7% from the previous quarter and up 4.5% from a year earlier.  With gasoline prices falling by nearly 18% from the third quarter to the fourth quarter, Arkansans were paying quite a bit less to fill their tanks.  The dollar-value of gasoline sales fell by 9.1 (seasonally adjusted).  Consequently, Arkansas Taxable Sales Including Gasoline (ATSIG) increased more slowly than the ATS, increasing by 1.8% for the quarter and 3.4% from a year earlier.

Sources: Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

Sources: Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

Sources: Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

Sources: Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

Since the official end of the recession (2009:Q2), ATS has increased by 19.4% (a 3.3% annual rate) and ATSIG has increased by 20.4% (3.4% annual rate).  However, inflation–as measured by the price index for Personal Consumption Expenditures–has been associated with an increase in prices of about 9.4% over the same period.  Consequently, real taxable sales  have only been increasing at an annual rate of 1.6% (not including gasoline) and by 1.8% (including gasoline).  After this adjustment for the effects of inflation, real taxable sales are only now recovering to levels comparable to the pre-recession cyclical peak of 2008:Q2.

Sources: Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Sources: Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

 # # #

Arkansas Taxable Sales (ATS) is calculated by the Institute for Economic Advancement to serve as a timely proxy for Arkansas retail sales. The series is derived from sales and use tax data, adjusting for the relative timing of tax collections and underlying sales, changes in tax laws, and seasonal patterns in the data.  Arkansas Taxable Sales Including Gasoline (ATSIG) incorporates data on the state motor fuel tax and gasoline prices from the Oil Price Information Service. A spreadsheet of the monthly and quarterly data is available here: Arkansas Taxable Sales 2014:Q4 (Excel file). Note:  With this release, seasonal factors for the monthly data have been revised.

Arkansas Taxable Sales – 2013:Q4 (Final)

By , April 3, 2014 10:52 AM

The final figures for Arkansas Taxable Sales (ATS)  in December 2013 were slightly lower than anticipated.  As a result, the fourth quarter growth rates for ATS and the expanded version–Arkansas Taxable Sales Including Gasoline (ATSIG)–ended up being lower than we originally reported.

In the fourth quarter, ATS declined by 0.5%, following a 0.8% decline in the third quarter.  Including gasoline, sales declined by 0.9% in the fourth quarter.  Compared to the fourth quarter of 2013, ATS was up 1.8% and ATSIG was up 0.7%.  Over the same four-quarter period, inflation averaged around 1.0% (PCE price index) to 1.2% (CPI).  As a result, real (inflation adjusted) ATSIG declined over the course of the year and real ATS rose by less than 1%.

Sources: Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

Sources: Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

Sources: Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

Sources: Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

Newly-released data for the first two months of 2014 show continuing weakness in January, but a sharp increase in February.  Compared to February 2013, the preliminary figures show increases of 7.4% for ATS and 6.1% for ATSIG.

Sources: Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

Sources: Department of Finance and Administration, Oil Price Information Service, Institute for Economic Advancement

# # #

Arkansas Taxable Sales (ATS) is calculated by the Institute for Economic Advancement to serve as a timely proxy for Arkansas retail sales. The series is derived from sales and use tax data, adjusting for the relative timing of tax collections and underlying sales, changes in tax laws, and seasonal patterns in the data.  Arkansas Taxable Sales Including Gasoline (ATSIG) incorporates data on the state motor fuel tax and gasoline prices from the Oil Price Information Service.

A spreadsheet of the data is available here: Arkansas Taxable Sales 2013:Q4 (Excel file)

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