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Posts tagged: Unemployment rate

Metro Area Employment and Unemployment – October 2016

By , December 1, 2016 12:05 PM

Differences in unemployment rates among Arkansas’ metropolitan areas generally narrowed slightly in October.  In the areas with the unemployment rates below the statewide average of 4.0% (Fayetteville, Jonesboro, and Little Rock), rates were unchanged.  Unemployment rates were down 0.3 percentage points in Pine Bluff and Fort Smith, and down 0.2 percentage points in Texarkana.  In Hot Springs, where the unemployment rate remains slightly above the statewide average, the unemployment rate ticked down by 0.1.  Memphis was the exception to the pattern, where a 0.1 percentage point increase in unemployment increased the rate to the highest among all metro areas that include parts of Arkansas.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Unemployment rates remained lower than a year earlier in all eight of the metro areas.  The largest decline was in Pine Bluff — down 1.6 percentage points (not seasonally adjusted data).  The unemployment rate in Texarkana rose 0.5 percentage points since May, but was 0.1 percentage point lower than in October 2015.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Payroll Employment
Data on nonfarm payroll employment was mixed.  Employment was higher in Memphis, Fort Smith and Little Rock, but declined in Jonesboro, Hot Springs and Pine Bluff.  There was no change in Fayetteville and Texarkana.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Over the most recent 12 months, employment has increase in all metro areas except Pine Bluff and Texarkana.  Those are also the only two metro areas where employment has declined, on net, since the nationwide and statewide employment trough-date of February 2010.

Arkansas Employment and Unemployment – October 2016

By , November 18, 2016 1:50 PM

Arkansas’ unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.0% in October.   The underlying data from the household survey shows that the number of employed Arkansans declined for the 5th consecutive month, falling by 1,805.  The number of unemployed fell slightly (-368) after rising in the previous four months.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Payroll Employment
Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment increased by 300 in October (seasonally adjusted).  An increase of 1,700 jobs in Construction employment accounted for a net increase in goods-producing sectors.  Despite a strong increase in Professional and Business Services (+1,700), service-providing sectors contracted from September to Octobers, led by declines in Leisure and Hospitality (-700), Wholesale Trade (-500) and Retail Trade (-1,600).  The concentration of job losses in consumer-related sectors suggests that firms are not scaling up holiday employment as much as in previous years.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

As presented during our Arkansas Economic Forecast Presentation, information from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages suggests that the nonfarm payroll data will ultimately be revised downward for the period from 2014:Q2 through 2015:Q1.  Final revisions will not be completed until March 2017 and will include additional data from 2015.   Currently, the total magnitude of the revision is estimated to be approximately 4,800 jobs (about 0.4%), with the revisions concentrated in the second half of 2015.

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Institute for Economic Advancement

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Institute for Economic Advancement

The table below breaks down the expected revisions by sector.  Employment in goods producing sectors is expected to be revised upward, while service-sector job growth will generally be revised lower (with the exception of Financial Services).  Overall job growth for the period December 2014 through October 2016 is presently estimated to be 31,200 (2.6%), but our projections of future data revisions indicate that growth rate for that period will total 26,400 jobs (2.2%).

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Institute for Economic Advancement

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Institute for Economic Advancement

Metro Area Employment and Unemployment – August 2016

By , September 30, 2016 3:53 PM

New data on employment and unemployment in metro areas came out earlier this week.  The data continue to show substantially lower unemployment rates in most Arkansas metro areas than a year earlier, although most of the decline took place in the latter part of 2015 with monthly data showing rates leveling off more recently.  In Texarkana, the unemployment rate has been drifting higher in recent months, leaving a net change of zero compared to August 2016.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

From July to August, seasonally adjusted estimates show no change in unemployment rates in most metro areas.  Unemployment rates in Fayetteville and Texarkana crept upward by one-tenth of a percentage point, while Hot Springs saw its unemployment rate decline by one-tenth.  The unemployment rate in Pine Bluff increased by two-tenths of a percent.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

As shown in the figure below, unemployment rates in Arkansas have leveled off since spring, and in some cases have increased through the summer.  Considerable variation remains among metro area rates, with unemployment under 3% in Fayetteville and over 5% in Memphis and Pine Bluff.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Payroll Employment
Estimates of nonfarm payroll employment in August were mixed.  From July to August, employment declined in Fayetteville and Pine Bluff, while increasing in Fort Smith, Little Rock, and Memphis.  Compared to a year earlier, only Pine Bluff shows a net decline in employment.  Since the employment trough of February 2010, the data show strong job growth in the Northwest and Northeast regions of the state, with more modest growth in other metro areas.  The exception is Pine Bluff, where employment has continued to decline.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Arkansas Employment and Unemployment – August 2016

By , September 20, 2016 12:59 PM

The Arkansas unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.9% in August.  The number of unemployed was up slightly (+267) and the number of employed was down (-1,520); however, these changes were not enough to cause the unemployment rate to budge more than a tiny fraction of a percentage point. August was the third consecutive month in which employment and unemployment moved in the “wrong” direction.  If these three month trends continue, the unemployment rate will tick up to 4.0% in September.  Despite the recent slowdown in household employment, Arkansas has shown significant improvement over the past 12 months.  The decline of 1.2% in the state’s unemployment rate since August 2015 is the largest decline in the country, matched only by Tennessee.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Payroll Employment
Arkansas nonfarm payrolls increased by 3,400 in August (seasonally adjusted). Employment in goods producing sectors was down, while most service-providing sectors expanded.   Particularly strong gains for the month were seen in Wholesale and Retail Trade, as well as Leisure and Hospitality Services.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Over the past year, employment is up by 16,700 jobs.  However, the pace of growth has slowed considerably since a year ago. From December 2014 through December 2015, Arkansas payroll employment expanded by 27,100 jobs — a growth rate of 2.3%.  So far in 2016, cumulative employment growth has totaled only 2,400 jobs, representing an annualized growth rate of only 0.3%.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

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*Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format compatible with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services, can be found hereTable-Seasonally Adjusted NFPE.

Metro Area Employment and Unemployment – June 2016

By , August 3, 2016 4:35 PM

Unemployment rates ticked up in Arkansas metro areas in June, but rates remain far lower than a year ago.  Today’s news release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics noted that unemployment rates were lower than a year earlier in 285 of the nations 387 metropolitan areas, and all 8 metro areas that cover parts of Arkansas were in that total.  Year-over-year changes ranged from -0.7% in Fort Smith and Texarkana to -1.6% in Pine Bluff.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

From May to June, not-seasonally adjusted unemployment rates increased by 0.3 to 0.5 percentage points, but most of those gains were typical seasonal changes.  After seasonal adjustment, unemployment rates increased by only 0.1 percentage point in most metro areas.  Rate increases were larger for Fort Smith and Memphis, and unemployment was unchanged in Texarkana.  As previously reported, the statewide unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) was unchanged at 3.8% in June, while the national unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points from 4.7% to 4.9%.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics and Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics and Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Payroll Employment
Nonfarm payroll employment changes were mixed  From May to June, payrolls declined in Little Rock, Pine Bluff and Fort Smith but were up in the state’s other metro areas.  Employment in Hot Springs was up 0.8%.  From June 2015 to June 2016, employment in three metro areas increased at a higher rate than the statewide average of 1.7%:  Hot Springs increased 3.8%, Fayetteville was up 3.7%, and Jonesboro rose by 3.5%.  Since the employment trough of February 2010, the northwest and northeast corners of the state have seen the strongest job growth (23% in Fayetteville and 16.4% in Pine Bluff).  At the other extreme, employment in Pine Bluff is nearly 10% lower than in February 2010, and is down 12.3% from pre-recession levels.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics

The chart below illustrates the divergent employment trends among the state’s metro areas since the 2008-09 recession.  Fayetteville, Jonesboro and Little Rock are the only three metro areas to have higher employment now than at the end of 2007.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics

 

Arkansas Employment and Unemployment – June 2016

By , July 22, 2016 12:22 PM

The unemployment rate in Arkansas remained unchanged at 3.8% in June.  After declining by a full percentage point in only 6 months, it is not surprising that we see a pause in its rapid descent.  Nationwide, the unemployment rate increased by two-tenths of a percent in June.  So at 4.9%, the U.S. unemployment rate is more than a percentage point higher than Arkansas’ rate.  Over the past 12 months, the Arkansas unemployment rate has fallen by 1.5%, the second largest drop in the nation (surpassed only by Tennessee’s 1.6% decline).

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

The changes in employment and unemployment that underlie the unemployment rate calculations were not particularly striking in their magnitude, but do represent a departure from recent trends.  The number of employed declined by more than 3,100 after a string of 29 consecutive months of growth.  The number of unemployed increased by only 344, but it was the first monthly increase in the number of jobless Arkansans since February 2011.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Payroll Employment
Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 400 in June (seasonally adjusted) and the figure for May was revised upward by 300.  Nevertheless, the level of payroll employment in June was essentially unchanged from December 2015.  The sharp contrast between payroll employment growth over the past 6 months (-100) and the employment gains measured by the household survey (+33,657) is striking.  It is not unusual for the two separate data sources to diverge, but such a large and persistent gap raises questions about measurement problems.  Both employment series are subject to future revision, but the payroll statistics are generally considered to be the more accurate of the two measures.  Combined with the fact that the increases in household employment took place in an unprecedented three consecutive months of 10,000+ increases (January through March), we remain somewhat skeptical of the validity of recent unemployment rate statistics.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

A breakdown by sectors shows that payroll employment shows gains in most sectors, particularly the service-providing sectors.  A prominent exception was Education & Health services, which declined by 1,300 jobs after expanding 7,400 in the previous 12-month period.  Retail Trade was another sector showing a setback from previous growth trends.  Professional & Business Services continues to be the fastest growing sector, increasing by over 28,000 since the employment trough of February 2010.  Growth in Professional & Business Services has accounted for over one-third of all job growth during this economic expansion.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

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*Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format compatible with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services, can be found hereTable-Seasonally Adjusted NFPE.

Arkansas Employment and Unemployment – May 2016

By , June 17, 2016 2:31 PM

The monthly report on employment and unemployment showed yet another decline in the Arkansas unemployment rate in May:  the rate declined 0.1% to an all-time low of 3.8%.  Over the past 12 months, the unemployment rate has fallen 1.6% — the second-largest decline in the country (next to Tennessee’s 1.7%).

The statistics underlying the falling unemployment rate were less dramatic than earlier in the year: The number of unemployed declined by 1,027 and the number employed increased by 1,073.  As a result, the size of the labor force remained approximately unchanged.  This stands in contrast to the first three months of the year, when employment and labor force growth exceeded  10,000 per month.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Although there is some reason to be skeptical about the magnitude of the employment gains underlying the unemployment rate decline, it is clear that unemployment is declining.  The number of unemployed has fallen every single months since February 2011, when it stood at nearly 115,000.  The number of unemployed in May was down to 51,773.

Yet even taking the 3.8% unemployment rate at face value, today’s low unemployment arises under different circumstances than previous episodes of low unemployment.  In particular, labor force participation remains low.  As shown in the chart below, the last time that unemployment declined to a cyclical low was just about 10 years ago (2006).  Unemployment was down to 5.0%.  At that time, however, the employment-population ratio was around 64%.   In 2016, while the unemployment rate has fallen below 4%, we only have an employment-population ratio of just over 56%.  So the percentage of Arkansans with jobs is presently 8 percentage points lower than it was a decade ago.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Payroll Employment
One important reason to question the statistics derived from the household survey is the conflicting information from the payroll survey.  Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 1,200 in May–about in line with the increase in household employment.  Over the past 5 months, however, the net change in payroll employment has been -800, compared to an increase of 36,778 reported in the household data. Payroll employment is 22,100 higher than it was in May 2015, but most of that increase took place in the latter months of 2015.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

The monthly change in payroll employment was dominated by an increase of 2,200 jobs in Education and Health Services — all of which was accounted for by rising employment in the health care sector.  Total employment in goods-producing sectors was down for the month, and changes in employment by service-providing sectors was mixed.  Over the past year, the strongest sectors continue to be Education & Health Services, Professional & Business Services, and Retail Trade.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

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*Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format compatible with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services, can be found hereTable-Seasonally Adjusted NFPE.

Arkansas Employment and Unemployment – April 2016

By , May 20, 2016 3:24 PM

The April employment report for Arkansas represented another in a string of positive reports in 2016, particularly for the data from the household survey.  The unemployment rate declined by two-tenths of a percentage point, from 4.1% in March (revised) to 3.9%. The monthly gain in employment was 5,309 — down from the ebullient 10,000+ pace of the previous three months but still substantial.  The number of unemployed Arkansans declined by 2,449.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Arkansas was mentioned several times in the news release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  The 3.9% unemployment rate was hailed as setting “a new series low” (dating back to 1976), and Arkansas was touted as experiencing the largest year-over-year unemployment rate decline in the nation (tied with Tennessee at -1.6%).  The unemployment rate in Arkansas is now more than a full percentage point lower than the national average of 5.0%.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

The sharp decline in the unemployment rate and the underlying surge in household employment are almost too good to be true.  In just four months, the household survey data have shown a cumulative employment increase of over 35,000 and a drop in the unemployment rate of 0.8%.  In contrast, data from the payroll survey have shown a decline of 1,900 jobs over the same period.  Eventually, data revisions might help reconcile these conflicting signals.  But for now, it’s probably a good idea to take the household employment report with a grain of salt.

Payroll Survey
Nonfarm payroll employment increased by a mere 700 jobs from March to April.  Compared to April of 2015, payrolls were up by over 25,000, but most of that growth took place during the latter part of 2015.  Employment is now 17,500 jobs (1.4%) higher than it was before the onset of the “great recession.”

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Sectoral changes in payroll employment were mixed.  Gains were recorded in the goods-producing sectors of Construction and Manufacturing.  Wholesale and Retail Trade sectors also experienced growth, as did Professional and Business Services.  Other service-providing sectors were flat or declining.  The not-seasonally adjusted data showed an increase in Leisure and Hospitality services; however, after taking account of normal seasonal variation, employment in that sector down from the previous month.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

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*Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format compatible with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services, can be found hereTable-Seasonally Adjusted NFPE.

Metro Area Employment and Unemployment – March 2016

By , April 29, 2016 5:05 PM

Earlier this week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released new statistics on metro area employment and unemployment in March.  Also included in this week’s data dump were the long-awaited annual revisions to household employment and unemployment for metro areas.

The new statistics for March showed that the long decline in unemployment rates has continued, and even accelerated in some metro areas.   The not-seasonally adjusted data showed that unemployment rates have fallen significantly over the past 12 months, with changes ranging from -0.8% in Texarkana to -1.9% in Pine Bluff.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

From February to March, unemployment rates continued their downward march in every Arkansas metro area except for Pine Bluff, where the rate stalled at 5.6%.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

The unemployment rate changes thus far in 2016 come on top of downward revisions to the data for 2015.  As shown in the figures below, the revisions to data for 2014 and 2015 generally evened-out some of the volatility, with the revised data showing smoother, more monotonic downward paths.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted Metro Area Estimates

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

In some cases, there were noticeable changes in the estimated unemployment rate levels (e.g. Pine Bluff and Memphis).  The table below summarizes the impact of the revisions on annual average unemployment rates.  With the exception of Memphis, revised unemployment levels were subject to small revisions in 2014, but the revisions had the effect of lowering the 2015 average unemployment rates for all eight metro areas.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Underlying the changes in unemployment rates, data on employment and unemployment were also revised.  The chart below shows the impact of the revisions on overall employment levels (as measured in the household survey data).  As of December 2015, the revisions increased measured employment in four metro areas and decreased it in the other four.  The largest revisions to the employment data were for Pine Bluff (+5.5%) and Hot Springs (-3.4%).

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates

Payroll Data
Data from the independent establishment survey showed weaker employment growth than the household survey.  From February to March, payroll employment declined in 6 of 8 metro areas, rising only in Hot Springs and Jonesboro.  Compared to a year ago, employment has declined in Pine Bluff, but is higher in all other metro areas.  Fayetteville and Jonesboro have displayed the highest growth rates over the past year.

Source:  Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Arkansas Employment and Unemployment – March 2016

By , April 15, 2016 3:14 PM

The Arkansas unemployment rate was reported to have declined again in March, this time by two-tenths of a percent to 4.0%.  Over the past three months, the rate has fallen by 0.7%.  More remarkable is the underlying data on household employment that has driven the rate decline.  In March, the number of employed Arkansans was reported to have been up 9,569 — the third month in a row of gains near or above 10,000.  From December through March, household employment has increased by more than 30,000.  This is literally unprecedented, and as reported below, it is at odds with the data reported in the separate payroll employment report.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS).

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS).

Payroll Employment
Nonfarm payrolls were down in March, dropping by 3,900 (seasonally adjusted).  In addition, the data for the previous month were revised slightly downward.  From December through March, payroll employment has declined by a total of 3,100.  It is not unusual for the household data and payroll data to give conflicting signals.  The two sets of employment measures are constructed using different data sources and methods.  The household report includes workers in the farming sector, the self-employed, and workers with jobs outside of Arkansas, whereas the payroll data do not.  The payroll data also count each job, whereas the household survey treats multiple job-holders as a single worker.  None of these differences is likely to account for the type of discrepancy we’ve seen between the two sets of employment numbers so far in 2016.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Two more likely explanations exist to explain the differences in the two employment series.  One possibility is that the unusually mild winter has had distorting effects on the seasonal patterns in the data.  If this is the case, underlying trends in employment growth are likely to become more apparent as the year proceeds.  The other possibility is that unusual patterns are affecting the viability of the model-based components of the data estimation process.  If this is the case, the divergence may persist in the currently published data until they have been revised with more complete information.

For now, taking the data at face value, the table below shows the breakdown of payroll employment changes for March.  For the month, job losses were evident in the goods-producing sectors and in each component of Trade, Transportation and Utilities.  Professional & Business Services and Education & Health Services continued the positive growth that has characterized those sectors throughout the current economic expansion.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES).

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES).

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*Seasonally adjusted data for Arkansas nonfarm payroll employment, reported in a format compatible with the monthly news release from the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services, can be found hereTable-Seasonally Adjusted NFPE.

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